1.4.
Since it wasn’t enough that 2014 hammered the Rangers with a record number of DL days and roster moves and Joe Saunders and all kinds of brutal baseball luck, what’s probably the silverest lining afforded the team by the sport has gotten battered as well.
Finishing with the game’s third-worst record (which was the first-worst with only eight games left on the schedule), Texas had its June 2015 draft position bumped down from 1.3 to 1.4 because Houston, having failed to sign its top pick a year ago, California high school lefthander Brady Aiken, was allowed to butt in line with what will be the second pick three weeks from now.
OK. Rules are rules. Plus, with Aiken back in the draft, theoretically dropping one slot might have turned out to be a wash (and at less expense).
But as the season began, many industry evaluators were calling the 2015 draft class, at least at the top, unusually thin on impact talent.
And then Aiken underwent Tommy John surgery late in March.
A week later, so did Duke righthander Michael Matuella, who like Aiken was a candidate to go at or near the top of the draft.
And lefthander Kolby Allard, thought by many to be the top high school pitcher in the draft, missed most of the spring with a stress reaction in his back, while University of Virginia pitcher Nathan Kirby, perhaps the top draft-eligible collegiate lefty, strained a lat muscle three weeks ago and was shut down as well.
Whether the Rangers had targeted Aiken or Matuella or Allard or Kirby (not to mention Allen High School infielder Kyler Murray, who has pulled out of the draft to cement his commitment to play quarterback for Texas A&M) is only part of the point, as there’s a strong chance one or two or three of the pitchers would have gone in the three slots ahead of the Rangers pick, pushing other players to Texas that might now be taken off the board beforehand.
Baseball Prospectus’s Christopher Crawford wrote, after Matuella went down on April 1: “Long story short, this was a less-than-ideal situation for teams with high draft picks before the Matuella injury, and while there’s still talent in this class, today’s news makes this the weakest top of the class I’ve ever covered.”
Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs, that same day: “Just heard about Matuella’s UCL tear. So, yeah, that sucks and the 2015 draft is looking like a horror movie at this point.”
It would have been a nice year to be able to trade down, since the prescribed slot doesn’t devalue just because the talent level might. But rules are rules.
The Rangers, who haven’t drafted this high since 1985 (Bobby Witt, 1.3) and 1986 (Kevin Brown, 1.4), will draft a player they love on June 8, even if it’s not necessarily the player they’d have chosen if everyone were healthy, but as for who that will be, there’s very little consensus as to whose name the club will call — because there’s plenty of uncertainty at this point over who will go to Arizona at 1.1, much less who fits at 1.2 (Houston) or 1.3 (Colorado).
In Baseball America’s initial mock draft, published May 8, that publication predicted Missouri State righthander Jon Harris would be the Texas pick.
BA rolled out a new mock yesterday, this time pegging UC Santa Barbara righthander Dillon Tate, rumored by other publications (and BA in its first mock) to be a strong candidate to go 1.1 to the Diamondbacks.
Crawford has Tate going to Texas as well, while McDaniel projects Louisville righthander Kyle Funkhouser.
Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com) predict Georgia high school outfielder Daz Cameron, son of Mike, will be the Rangers’ choice at 1.4 (though Callis has also suggested Funkhouser could be the pick).
Dave Rawnsley of Perfect Game USA: LSU shortstop Alex Bregman.
Matt Garrioch of MinorLeagueBall.com: Harris.
ESPN’s Keith Law hasn’t rolled out a mock yet, but said in a chat recently that he believes Vanderbilt righthander Walker Buehler is at the top of the Rangers’ list, though he could also see Florida high school shortstop Brendan Rodgers slipping to 1.4.
Incredibly, it seems there was more consensus on the Rangers’ direction when they were regularly drafting in the 1.20’s.
I miss the days of drafting in the 1.20’s.
Some are going to suggest, hyperbolically, that drafting fourth overall in 2015 is no different — aside from the price tag — from drafting some years in the 1.20’s, but it is what it is, and the Rangers are going to add a very good baseball player with a very high ceiling when they make the fourth selection in 23 days.
And maybe, as that pick comes a mere weeks (we hope) before Derek Holland and Martin Perez and maybe even Matt Harrison return to action, we can get closer to slamming the book shut on the black cloud that lowered and dumped on this team in 2014, and hasn’t quite fully cleared away.
I don’t ever want to title a report “1.4” again.


