How good can get better.
Look, the sky is not falling. Ian Kinsler is hitting .260/.339/.508. It's fair to expect more. Josh Hamilton is absent, and hit only .240/.290/.456 when he was around. When he's back, he'll be better. Chris Davis is at .208/.266/.431, after .285/.331/.549 as a rookie. He has more strikeouts in 202 at-bats this year (92) than he did in 295 at-bats last year (88). As big as the 2008 sample size was, it can't be viewed as a Kevin Maas-like fluke. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.251/.300/.383) and Marlon Byrd (.288/.310/.455): The average and the slug look like 2008's, but the dropoffs in reaching base have been staggering. Hank Blalock has fallen from .287/.338/.508 to .251/.294/.529. Yes, Andruw Jones (.257/.371/.532) and Omar Vizquel (.322/.355/.424) are giving us more than we expected, but they have the 11th and 12th most at-bats on the club, each fewer than Hamilton, who has missed almost as many games as he's played. With 100 games left to play, of the regulars, only Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, Elvis Andrus, and David Murphy are producing at a level that you'd have taken three months ago. And though each has had at least one torrid streak at the plate this season, looking at their overall numbers you probably wouldn't say any of them is playing out of his mind offensively. That's sort of the point. Nobody that Texas counts on every day is hitting out of his mind in 2009. Not one guy. And yet the club is two games up on the rest of the division, having survived what was objectively the toughest three-week run of opponents on its 2009 schedule. You'd have taken that June 16 position three months ago, without question. If your cynical response is that the pitching staff is full of guys playing out of their minds, in truth that can probably only be said about two, maybe three pitchers. And as improved as the Rangers defense is, there's at least theoretical (if not statistical) reason to believe that there's a basis for the pitching to have been producing more without doing more. If this lineup can figure some things out (and I'm not suggesting it's merely a matter of time – there's clearly work to be done), then this team, on pace to win 92 games, can get better. The most encouraging thing about 35-27 is not that we've just gotten through NYY-OAK-NYY-BOS-TOR-LAD having seen the division lead shrink by only half a game (one full game after the Angels held on last night), but instead that track records suggest that there is so much room for offensive improvement, on nearly a player-by-player basis, that this good baseball team has a legitimate chance to very good. This year. Meanwhile, in the last 24 hours Scot Shields has decided to undergo season-ending knee surgery, Kelvim Escobar (who was going to replace Shields as a high-leverage righthander in the Angels bullpen) has gone back on the disabled list with a shoulder that's still giving him trouble, Ervin Santana has been scratched from tonight's start with tightness in his forearm (MRI results should come today), and Torii Hunter bruised his rib cage running into a wall and will miss at least a couple games. The Angels aren't going away, but Texas has played itself into a position to take advantage of an opportunity that shouldn't be going away anytime soon, either. For those of you who think I'm about to advocate a launch into Step Five, I'm noncommittal on that right now. But that doesn't mean an impact trade is out of the question. Five words: Delmon Young for Matt Garza. Actually, 15 words: Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan. I was among what I suspect was an easy majority who saw that November 2007 trade and thought Minnesota had pulled one over on Tampa Bay, having stolen the AL Rookie of the Year runner-up just before he really exploded into superstar territory. But the Rays probably aren't the defending American League champs without that deal, and they'd never undo it. As for the Twins, they're rumored just a year and a half later to be shopping Young and his three extra-base hits in 42 games. I'm not going to sit here and lay out a half dozen specific trade scenarios involving pre-arb players for pre-arb players (yet), but I will suggest to you that falling into the camp that says there's a trade or two to be made that could help fill a hole or two on this contending team doesn't necessarily mean taking on significant payroll, or emasculating the farm system. It may just be a matter of reallocating assets, in a way that Tampa Bay did with more success than Minnesota did 19 months ago. It was a good old-fashioned baseball card trade, one that had nothing to do with salary dumps or mid-summer rentals, a trade without which the Rays would probably still be a franchise without a playoff appearance. It was a bold, smart move for Tampa Bay, who got a lot better right away, without a venture into Step Five. With the Rangers system as deep in young talent as it is right now, at both the major league and minor league levels, I wouldn't be against the concept of that type of trade to make this team instantly stronger, trusting the evaluations of my scouts to use a strength to address a weakness. Getting more production out of the big league lineup, from hitters who have proven that they're capable of providing it, would make the club stronger right away as well. But those two things aren't mutually exclusive. Nothing wrong with shooting for both. =========================================================== To join the free Newberg Report mailing list so you can get e-mail deliveries of every edition of the newsletter, daily minor league game recaps, and frequent Newberg Report News Flashes, go to www.newbergreport.com and click the "Mailing List" link on the top menu bar. (c) Jamey Newberg http://www.newbergreport.com Twitter @newbergreport If you want to be removed from this list, please e-mail me at newbergreport@sbcglobal.net