Spring training wrap-up: 32 Things I'm Glad I Saw.

Three predictions: Matt Brown is Mike Simms (plus a little third base). Max Ramirez is Jim Leyritz. Ramon Vazquez will join the Jon Shave/Jim Mason/Bobby Jones/Nick Capra/Larry Biittner/Bill Ripken club. (Not an unrelated note: Ray Olmedo has reportedly been reassigned to minor league camp.) (Not a very significant note, though I'm choosing to point it out and I'm sure others will, too: Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston reports that the Rangers are scouting Mike Lowell today. The Marlins, Yankees, and Blue Jays have scouts in Boston camp, too.) Let me suggest to you that if you didn't watch yesterday's Rangers-Dodgers game, Derek Holland's line will look worse to you than it should. Keep in mind that pitchers who work late in spring training games tend to have inferior defenses behind them. So happy to be home from Arizona just in time for the start of spring, and snow. Ugh. As for our week in Surprise, 32 Things I'm Glad I Saw: 1. A 15-minute glimpse of Alexi Ogando, warming in the pen and then throwing a 1-2-3 inning at a Brewers B squad, was plenty. I had him at number 39 in my Top 72 Prospects list in the Bound Edition, that low because he was still locked out of the United States, seemingly indefinitely, but even if his immigration issue had been cleared up before I went to print, I probably wouldn't have put him any higher than 15-20 in the system. Now? No question: he's a top 10 prospect. 2. Corner outfielder Miguel Velazquez. Had him at number 25 in the book, and the number two outfielder in the system, and the number four breakout candidate among hitters. Too low, in every case. 3. Right now, we can look back at 2007 as a watershed year developmentally for the organization, the year that Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Martin Perez, Julio Borbon, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, David Murphy, Tommy Hunter, Mitch Moreland, Velazquez, Engel Beltre, Blake Beavan, Max Ramirez, Michael Main, Tomas Telis, Tim Smith, and Leury Garcia were brought into the system. Missing from that list is righthander Neil Ramirez, limited by injuries to just 110.1 innings in three seasons. He's about to jump onto the list, and probably not at the back of it. 4. Some pitchers' stuff plays up when they move from starter to reliever, where the doses are shorter and the adrenaline is higher and the third and fourth pitches can be left in the equipment bag. Getting a chance to watch C.J. Wilson go twice through a fairly representative Cubs lineup made me think he could be an anomaly, just as good if not better in a rotation role (cf., Adam Wainwright, Scott Feldman, Ryan Dempster). 5. The impressive show of support by the players and coaches at Ron Washington's press conference was the one bright spot in an otherwise terrible day. 6. Julio Borbon's throwing stood out on the batting practice field, and not in a good way, but he made an outstanding throw to third in the Brewers game Thursday night. He's going to have to show it a lot more to get teams to think twice about going first-to-third on a single, but at least we know it's there. 7. If Harrison were not part of the same trade that brought Andrus and Feliz to Texas, or if he'd been drafted by the Rangers, there'd be a lot more buzz about the camp that the 24-year-old (younger than Ogando, Doug Mathis, Guillermo Moscoso, Warner Madrigal, Pedro Strop, Luis Mendoza, Moreland, Craig Gentry, Chad Tracy, and Max Ramirez) is having. Velo is up and he's locating everything. 8. Not now and maybe not in 2010 at all, but lefthander Michael Kirkman has a chance to sneak up on everyone the same way. 9. I actually saw less of Vladimir Guerrero than I thought I would, because I was usually watching something else when he was doing his thing. But I did notice that his fan mob has displaced Josh Hamilton's and Nolan Ryan's from the top spot. 10. Guerrero, Hamilton, and Beltre taking pitches. 11. How did Mitch Moreland fall to the 17th round in 2007? That's a knock against 30 teams, not just 29. He barrels the ball as consistently as any prospect this system has produced since Ian Kinsler broke out six years ago. 12. The big league pitching staff, stronger than it's been in years, has more young core arms than it's had in years. The thought that not only Ogando but also Tanner Scheppers and Martin Perez will factor in before long is pretty great. 13. The catching depth has disintegrated in the last year (regressions, trades, injuries), but even if it hadn't, 16-year-old Colombian Jorge Alfaro would probably sit atop the current list. He's more raw in some areas than others, but he's a dazzling talent. 14. Among the things I'm really bummed about not seeing was Alfaro in dedicated defensive drills, and righthander Jake Brigham throwing a side or live BP or an inning of work. I had Brigham at number four on my pitcher breakout list in the book, and after what I heard this week, I'd probably move him higher than that. 15. Third baseman Tommy Mendonca has lots of work to do, but the foundation is there. His bat ceiling has been compared to Chris Davis, but there's more to the comparison than that: Mendonca has the ability to be a lockdown corner infielder that also hits like one. Tremendous defensive tools. 16. On Thursday morning I noticed Mendonca began his BP work by leaving the donut on his bat before shedding it later in the session. I asked the Rangers why. Seems it's calculated to tighten up a player's swing path and help him get the feel for the head of the bat, and is used from time to time with hitters who swing from the opposite side than they throw from (a left-handed-hitting, right-handed-throwing player like Mendonca often has a weaker top hand that an R-R or L-L player wouldn't have). Switch-hitter Leury Garcia is working with the donut some, too. It's a technique Edgar Martinez used to use, even though he was an R-R guy. 17. Esteban German is a great guy to have in AAA, ready in case someone gets hurt. But the role he's fighting to win is more about defense, and he's not dependable. 18. One thing I'm very glad I saw: Limby lefthander Geuris Grullon didn't hurt anybody. 19. It's a big year for righthander Michael Main and third baseman Johnny Whittleman. That's different from saying it will be a big year. It's time for those two. Main has to prove he can stay on the mound, and Whittleman has to prove he can field the position and take more advantage of his slug potential. Both are in very good shape. Time to produce. 20. I may be coming around on lefthander Edwin Escobar a bit. Would I have written Francisco Liriano off because I didn't like his frame? Rich Harden? (Caveat: I'm not making a Liriano or Harden comp.) 21. I still prefer Jurickson Profar, but the gap between him and Luis Sardinas is smaller for me than it was when I saw them in September. See the Gil-Aurilia/Cooper-Bagwell/Kotchman-Morales/etc. discussion in the Sardinas feature in the Bound Edition. 22. The best third-round picks Texas has made in the last 11 years are Hank Blalock and Taylor Teagarden. The latest, lefthander Robbie Erlin, has pitched only four professional innings, but is going to make the Rangers (particularly Butch Metzger, Kevin Bootay, and Ron Hopkins) look very good. 23. The best seventh-rounder over the same period? Probably Smith, unless you count unsigned righthander Virgil Vasquez (2000). My money is on righthander Matt Thompson replacing them. I'm super-excited about him. Strike-thrower with a knee-buckling curve. 24. Vin DiFazio is a baseball player. 25. Glad to have the chance to be around Wayne Kirby and Don Welke, of course. 26. Righthander Wilfredo Boscan (bigger in a good way) completely overmatched outfielder Cristian Santana (a not-so-good big) in a live BP session. Not sure which player it said more about. 27. Despite the first half of 2009, I might be more optimistic about Chris Davis right now than I was coming off his outstanding 2008 debut. Cleaner bat path, head is more still, and he's using the opposite field like he needs to. The statistics don't matter in March, but you can't dismiss the confidence factor that comes from numbers like the ones he's putting up. 28. I read a few stories earlier this month about the organization challenging Nelson Cruz to take on more of a leadership role. Maybe it was because I was looking for it, but it did seem like he was stepping forward more. He's a good example of a guy getting knocked down a bunch and never giving up. 29. The only thing that separates Brandon Boggs from David Murphy might be opportunity. Murphy didn't get it in Boston, and so far Boggs hasn't gotten it in Texas. I wouldn't bet against similar careers. 30. Davis, Moreland, Justin Smoak. Carlos Pena, Travis Hafner, Mark Teixeira. Worth discussing another time? 31. The last thing I saw in camp, on Friday morning: Whittleman, Beltre, and Velazquez taking BP on three different fields, at the same time. One guy who has been too selective, one guy who's not selective enough, one guy who just needs at-bats. Big beta on those guys, especially the first two. 32. This may not matter to the casual baseball fan, and may not ring true to some since I'm an admitted homer and come into all of this with an optimistic fan's perspective. But everywhere you turn on the south side of the Surprise complex, from the steady veterans to the high-ceiling rookies to the swarm of minor league arms, from the big league pitching coach and hitting coach to the former organizational soldier who now graduates from managing in the Dominican Summer League to doing the same in the Arizona Complex League, from the President and the General Manager to the guys running the scouting and development departments who you hope don't get hired away too soon, from Darren Oliver to Jorge Alfaro, there's so much this franchise has in place that backs up the consistent comments coming from all corners of the organization that it's time. Time to shift focus from Baseball America awards to dethroning the Angels, time to get the real thing underway, time to expect to remain standing after 162. I love everything about spring training, including it coming to an end. Fifteen sleeps. =========================================================== To join the free Newberg Report mailing list so you can get e-mail deliveries of every edition of the newsletter, daily minor league game recaps, and frequent Newberg Report News Flashes, go to www.newbergreport.com and click the "Mailing List" link on the top menu bar. (c) Jamey Newberg http://www.newbergreport.com Twitter @newbergreport