Sunday hops, 5-31-26.
A weekly compendium emptying the bench, with Rangers developments, rumors, and takes — and, as always, a little TROT COFFEY.
Moving away from the solipsistic, perhaps we should consider this, when reflecting on the wretched Astros/Rockies/Angels trip that was followed by a lifeforce-draining home series against the Astros.
We all wanted to believe, with good reason, that the road trip was a real chance to break out of the .500-toeing doldrums and start to separate from the pack.
But shouldn’t we recognize those teams probably couldn’t wait to face this lineup themselves?
On to this week’s Hops — which is free today. If you’re not already a subscriber, welcome. Things are about to look different around here.
A shift.
As I tweeted Wednesday night, as another disappointing loss to Houston came to a close, I decided my routine around here needed a change. Sunday Hops will remain in place, but I’m going to back off the pace of my gamers. I’d dropped a “Three Up, Three Down” 39 times in the team’s first 54 games this season (plus five times in spring training), but I’m reading your comments (and your tweets) and it seems clear to me a whole lot of you are widening the lens and would like for me to do the same.
Heard. I’m not retiring the gamers, but they’re going to be more sparse. I’m going to devote more writing time to the bigger picture, hoping to start that this week. I’ve got some things I want to write about, including:
the active roster, with a proposed blueprint I’m going to throw against the wall
the Rangers’ recent trade activity, focusing not just on specifics but also on mentality
this year’s trade deadline
the upcoming draft
and whatever else draws me to the computer — invariably, things will pop up that haven’t even occurred to any of us yet
Can’t believe I’m doing this before we even get to June. But I’m listening to you.
Wyatt.
Serving as the DH, Wyatt Langford kicked off his rehab assignment with Triple-A Round Rock last night, with these results (none of which matter as much as how his forearm is feeling this morning):
First inning: pop-out to second base
Third inning: walk (scored on a Blaine Crim home run)
Fifth inning: walk (scored on a Cody Freeman home run)
Seventh inning: strikeout looking
That road trip.
There are all kinds of ways to look at that brutal nine-game road trip that preceded the rough four-game home set against Houston, and here’s another that occurred to me.
Not only were the Rangers heading out to face the teams with baseball’s three worst records — but you would have to believe they had the rotation set up exactly the way they wanted. Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi were set to start four of the nine games against the Astros, Rockies, and Angels; in fact, deGrom, Eovaldi, MacKenzie Gore, and Jack Leiter each got two starts, with Kumar Rocker (who has pronounced home/road splits) taking just one.
And another: though they went 3-6 on the abysmal trip, they outscored their opponents, 39-33. An 8-0 win in Houston and a 10-0 drubbing in Colorado had lots to do with that, but not one of the six losses was by more than three runs, making the overall win-loss even more excruciating. It wouldn’t have taken much to make that an acceptable road trip — or even better than that.
Four score and . . . not-four score: a Pythagorean update.
Which makes this as good a place as any to pay our weekly visit to Pythagoras.
The MLB average for team runs scored in a game this year is now 4.40. The Rangers are at 3.98 per game. Last year, when the offense was the culprit for a season that ended at 162, Texas scored 4.22 runs per game, which in 2026 would be close to middle of the pack.
This year, when the Rangers score even a little less than that league average — specifically, four runs — they have a 22-6 record.
When they don’t: 5-25.
Texas sits at 27-31. Its Pythagorean win-loss is 30-28.
But if the Rangers were scoring runs at the league average — not a dominant offense, but an exactly average one — their Pythagorean record would be 32-26, which would give them the biggest division lead in the AL.
And that 32-26 mark would extrapolate to 90-72 — if not better, considering they’ve got a schedule the rest of the way that’s supposedly less challenging than what they’ve been through — even with nothing more than an average offense.
As we’ve been saying, this drives home an unbelievably deflating truth: the Rangers, just as in 2025, have some of baseball’s best pitching . . . but what their offense continues to do — that is, not do — is once again threatening to somehow waste all of that.
Postseason odds.
Factoring in strength of schedule, not to mention the relative weakness of the American League, FanGraphs now gives the Rangers healthy 38.1 percent odds to reach the playoffs. Baseball Reference boosts it to 49.2 percent.
Looking ahead to the 2027 draft.
If the season were to end today, the Rangers would slot 12th in next year’s amateur draft, with a 1.32 percent chance of CooperFlagging the lottery.
The Top 72.
My semi-annual Top 72 Rangers Prospects series is now complete. In case you want to go back to any of the six installments, here you go:
Group 1: No. 1 through No. 12 (plus a complete rundown of the entire list)
Group 2: No. 13 through No. 24
Group 3: No. 25 through No. 36
Group 4: No. 37 through No. 48
Group 5: No. 49 through No. 60
Group 6: No. 61 through No. 72
The state of the 40-man roster.
PITCHERS (22): Tyler Alexander, Jalen Beeks, Gavin Collyer, Jose Corniell, Luis Curvelo, David Davalillo, Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Robert Garcia, MacKenzie Gore, Peyton Gray, Jakob Junis, Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter, Leandro Lopez, Chris Martin, Michel Otañez, Cal Quantrill, Kumar Rocker, Winston Santos, Emiliano Teodo, Cole Winn
CATCHERS (2): Kyle Higashioka, Danny Jansen
INFIELDERS (10): Jake Burger, Blaine Crim, Ezequiel Duran, Justin Foscue, Cody Freeman, Josh Jung, Nicky Lopez, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Josh Smith
OUTFIELDERS (6): Evan Carter, Sam Haggerty, Michael Helman, Wyatt Langford, Brandon Nimmo, Alejandro Osuna
60-DAY INJURED LIST (3): Carter Baumler, Cody Bradford, Jordan Montgomery
Key dates.
February 10: Rangers pitchers and catchers report.
February 15: All other Rangers players report.
February 20: Cactus League opener: Rangers vs. Royals in Surprise.
March 4-17: World Baseball Classic.
March 20: Spring Breakout prospect game, Rangers vs. Royals in Surprise.
March 23-24: Rangers vs. Royals exhibition games at Globe Life Field.
March 25: Opening Night: Yankees vs. Giants.
March 26: Opening Day: Rangers at Phillies.
April 3: Home Opener: Reds vs. Rangers.
July 11-12: MLB Draft.
July 12: Futures Game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
July 14: All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
August 3: Trade Deadline (5:00 p.m. Central).
September 27: Regular Season ends.
September 29: Postseason begins.
October 23: World Series Game 1.
This Week in Nestico & Pitch Profiler.
This Week in Roster Reconstruction.
May 24: RHP Cole Winn placed on the 15-day injured list (right arm fatigue)
May 24: RHP Gavin Collyer recalled from Triple-A Round Rock
May 26: IF/OF Cody Freeman sent on a rehab assignment to Triple-A Round Rock
May 27: IF Nicky Lopez signed
May 27: DH/OF Andrew McCutchen designated for assignment
May 28: IF/OF Cody Freeman activated from the 10-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Round Rock
May 28: DH/OF Andrew McCutchen released
Farm stuff.
Props are in order for 3B/1B Rafe Perich and OF Yeison Morrobel — but not for me. I dropped both off my Top 72 this time around, and since the installments where I’d considered plugging them in came and went, both have gone on rampages at the plate.
Perich followed a .236/.300/.382 (.682 OPS) April with an unconscious May in which he hit .333/.440/.722 (1.163 OPS) with 10 homers and more walks (16) than strikeouts (14), prompting a promotion on Friday to Double-A Frisco. In his previous 120 pro games, the 2024 seventh-rounder had gone deep seven times.
Morrobel, in his sixth pro season and third at the High-A level, has hit .308/.379/.451 (.829 OPS) in May, his highest monthly batting average and OPS since early in 2023. What prompted me to dig on that a little bit is he hit for the cycle on Tuesday, leading off the Spartanburgers game with his first home run of the year and completing the feat with a ninth-inning single (that immediately preceded Perich’s second bomb of the night).
Some eye-opening hitting starts in the Arizona Complex League:
19-year-old OF Jay McQueen, the Rangers’ final pick in last summer’s draft out of a Mississippi high school, didn’t make his pro debut until 2026 — and he’s hitting .441/.554/.627 (1.181 OPS) through 75 plate appearances.
20-year-old Cuban OF Marco Argudin sits at .365/.477/.558 (1.035 OPS) in 66 trips — after hitting .397..497..587 (1.083) in the Dominican Summer League in 2025.
TWP Seong-Jun Kim is hitting .310/.408/.571 (.980 OPS) but has yet to pitch.
Keith Law (The Athletic) updated his Top 50 Prospects list, including SS Sebastian Walcott at No. 15. (He also noted that while Nationals IF Devin Fitz-Gerald didn’t make his preseason Top 100, he’s headed that way.)
TROT COFFEY!
In a survey of all of the website’s baseball writers, Tim Britton, Johnny Flores Jr., and Zack Meisel (The Athletic) note that, interestingly, the staff feels that the Rangers’ playoff chances have gone up from 17 percent in March to 26 percent presently (but as a “dark horse contender” for the World Series, they’ve gone from 4 percent to zero).
Jim Bowden (The Athletic) handicapped the other 29 teams’ odds to load up this summer for Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal, and with regard to the Rangers he suggested they “will be focusing on improving their lineup, not their rotation, at the trade deadline.”
Some former Rangers:
Mets 2B Marcus Semien: .214/.263/.306 (.569 OPS), -0.6 bWAR
Phillies OF Adolis Garcia: .198/.283/.307 (.590 OPS), 65 strikeouts in 219 plate appearances, -0.6 bWAR
A’s C Jonah Heim: .197/.270/.333 (.604 OPS), -0.2 bWAR
Orioles OF Leody Taveras: .279/.377/.393 (.769 OPS), 1.1 bWAR
Reds DH/1B Nathaniel Lowe: .273/.353/.570 (.923 OPS), 0.9 bWAR
Lance Brozdowski (Lance’s Pitcher Notes) pointed out after Angels lefty Reid Detmers carved Texas up with 14 strikeouts in eight scoreless, one-hit innings last weekend that the Rangers not only had the worst xwOBA in MLB this season against left-handed four-seamers — at .222, their mark was 30 points lower than the Giants, who were next worst.
Nationals 1B Abimelec Ortiz had a four-game home run streak for Triple-A Rochester, with seven homers in a six-game stretch.
Premium subscription options.
162+
The premium 162+ level includes extra perks like game-watching gatherings and Zoom Q&A’s with Rangers folks, along with a “Founder’s Choice” feature in which I invite you to pitch an idea for a story you’d like to have me write. (More on that below.)
If you’re not a 162+ and would like to consider upgrading to that level, here’s how you can get it done.
Lifetime subs
I’m also offering a permanent, lifetime, $1,000 subscription to the Newberg Report, which comes with all of the extras that 162+ subscribers get. Thanks to those of you who have already signed on for it!
We do still have the $7/month plan, the $72/year option, and the premium $200/year 162+ deal, each of which you can sign up for here. If you’re interested in the lifetime arrangement, let me know by email or here in the Comments. We can arrange something via PayPal or Venmo or Zelle.
I’m basing the concept on something Joe Sheehan offers his subscribers:
New 162+/Lifetime feature.
If you’re a 162+ or Lifetime subscriber, I’d love for you to pitch a story idea you’d like for me to take on. Have already had a few really good ones come in.
No limitations on these. They can focus on whatever and whoever you’d like, past, present, or future. I’m calling this a “Founders Choice” series (hat tip to the great Bob Sturm), but you need not have subscribed at one of those two levels from the jump to get in on this. Choose one of those premium levels at any time, and you’re in!
You can pitch your ideas at any time. No promises on me taking on every story idea, given how many of you there are, but I do want to get you all more involved aside from the game-watching gatherings and Zoom guest visits we’ll continue to set up.
ICYMI.
Posts since last Sunday’s Hops:
Sunday hops, 5-24-26.
Tomorrow, the Newberg Report turns 28. It was born three months after Josh Jung.
Game 52: Three Up, Three Down.
Normally, this would have been the kind of baseball game I love: great pitching, low-scoring, just about every at-bat capable of changing the lead.
Game 54: Three Up, Three Down.
In their first inning after getting no-hit, the Rangers hit for the cycle and plated eight.
Top 72 Rangers prospects, 2026: No. 1-No. 12.
In the fall, when I last sat down to tackle this semi-annual exercise, I had Devin Fitz-Gerald ranked No. 8 in the Rangers system. He would have been considerably higher now.
A couple of us old timers who pretty much watch every game and baseball for decades, are still perplexed with what is failing on this 2026 team. Do we call out a cheap owner, poor executive management at the top, a manager making poor decisions, inept coaching, no team leader, or just not very good players. I’m more than happy to lose some gamers, Jamey, if you give us insight into the riddles. As we all know, last season we had 81 wins, a .500 winning percentage. I ran the Pythagorean Expectation calculation and it predicts, as of today, a winning percentage of .507 and number of wins 82.4. So roughly an 82-80 season. And watching games, it feels like nothing has improved from last season. Pythagoras might have been pretty smart.
I have the MLB Ticket, and have been watching the White Sox for the past few days. It reminded me that two years ago I thought that Will Venable was crazy to take the White Sox managing job when he just had to wait a few years to inherit a very good Ranger team. How wrong I was. My guess is that Venable (fellow Princeton grad) is feeling pretty good about his decision right now. Which job looks better to you, Mr. Newberg (and the studio audience can play as well)?