Sunday hops, 6-15-25.
A weekly compendium emptying the bench, with Rangers developments, rumors, and takes — and yes, a little TROT COFFEY.
The Rangers have won six of seven. They’re starting, somewhat regularly, to hit. But the rotation is starting to hit some bumps.
They’re also just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.
Things are certainly getting interesting.
On to this week’s Hops, Father’s Day Edition. No paywall today.
Four score and . . . not-four score: a Pythagorean update.
The MLB average for team runs scored in a game this year is now 4.32.
When the Rangers score even a little less than that average — specifically, four runs — they have a 26-4 record.
When they don’t: 9-32.
Texas sits at 35-36. But its Pythagorean win-loss is 39-32. Houston’s is 40-30.
And I’m not making this up: if the Rangers were scoring runs at the league average — not a dominant offense, but an average one — the Pythagorean number would be 44-27.
And that extrapolates to 102-60.
That would be a franchise record . . . even with an average offense.
Looking to Houston for inspiration.
Last year, through 71 games, the Astros were 32-39, and 9.0 games back in the AL West. They were also six teams behind the final Wild Card slot.
They ended up 88-73, winning the division by 3.5 games.
Again: Texas, through 71 games, is 35-36.
Doli & Burger.
Adolis Garcia was hitting .208/.256/.371 (.626) when the Rangers gave him a three-and-a-half-game mental “reset.”
Jake Burger was hitting .190/.231/..330 (.561) when the Rangers optioned him to Triple-A for his own 10-day reset.
Since:
Garcia is hitting .316/.341/.474 (.815) — a 189-point jump in OPS
Burger is hitting .256/.287/.496 (.783) — a 222-point jump in OPS
By the way, check out this split:
Burger when playing first base this year: .216/.256/.392 (.648)
Burger when serving as the DH this year: .304/.304/.652 (.957)
Burger when playing first base in his career: .241/.286/.423 (.709)
Burger when serving as the DH in his career: .247/.281/.531 (.813)
One problem with all of this is that Burger is a really, really good first baseman. As good an all-around defender as Josh Smith is, the infield defense is not as strong when Smith, who is learning first base on the job, is manning the position.
But I guess right now, the priority play is to maximize offense, and for whatever reason Burger has been more productive DH’ing.
Osuna.
It’s time to send Alejandro Osuna down. He hasn’t started a game since last Sunday.
I suppose now you wait to make sure Evan Carter doesn’t need to be deactivated. But Osuna needs to play. Get Blaine Crim up here to DH on days you want Smith in the outfield, or to play first when you want Burger DH’ing. Justin Foscue would work, too — he and Crim are both on a tear right now — though Foscue’s playing far more second base than first base right now.
Also, nobody asked me.
Postseason odds.
FanGraphs now gives the Rangers 29.2 percent odds to reach the playoffs.
This Week in Nestico.
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This Week in Roster Reconstruction.
By far, the lightest week of the season, at least procedurally.
We had the Evan Carter scare Friday night but he’s apparently a decent bet to return to action Tuesday. We have progress on the rehab front, as Nathan Eovaldi threw a side yesterday, Jon Gray will throw one today, and Cody Bradford and Josh Sborz move closer to rehab assignments.
On the other hand, Tyler Mahle is reportedly dealing with some shoulder soreness, and could be facing an injured list stint. Kumar Rocker will be recalled today from his option to make today’s start. Not particularly ideal from two angles: an extended Mahle shutdown would obviously be troublesome, and I’m sure the Rangers would have preferred to let Rocker continue to work on some things on the farm before returning to the big club.
Still, at least for the moment, all we’ve officially got from the week are a couple moves that don’t involve the active roster. For now.
June 12: RHP Craig Kimbrel signed to a minor league contract
June 14: RHP Gerson Garabito released.
Kimbrel, who has 440 big-league saves (second only to Kenley Jansen among active pitchers, and there isn’t a close third), debuted for Triple-A Round Rock on Thursday, fanning two and walking one in a hitless sixth for the Express.
For the year, the 37-year-old has pitched in three Double-A games, 15 Triple-A games, and one MLB game, all with the Braves, plus his one Round Rock appearance, and collectively he’s limiting opponents to a .136/.260/.182 (.442) slash line, with 26 strikeouts and 11 walks in 20 innings.
Garabito, who had dutifully served as an up-and-down spot starter and long man, had hit a really rough skid since his last option to Round Rock, posting an 8.53 ERA in his last 33 ⅔ innings, with an opposing slash of .307/.399/.583 (.981). The 29-year-old had been on the 40-man roster, which would open a spot for someone like Dane Dunning to rejoin the staff — though before long, Cody Bradford, Josh Sborz, and Jon Gray will need 40-man spots as well.
Farm stuff.
The Rangers announced their minor-league award winners for May:
Player of the Month: Arizona Complex League Rangers INF Devin Fitz-Gerald
Starting Pitcher of the Month: Double-A Frisco LHP Mitch Bratt
Reliever of the Month: Low-A Hickory LHP Dalton Pence
Defender of the Month: Double-A FriscoINF/OF Cam Cauley
FanGraphs rolled out its Top 45 Rangers Prospects list, with this capsule summary: “This system is a soundly above average, though Sebastian Walcott’s presence at the very top is the chief reason why. Without him, the Rangers’ farm would have slightly above-average depth but otherwise be in the middle of the pack in most respects, and primed to slip below average as the Vanderbilt arms graduate.”
Triple-A Round Rock 3B Cody Freeman is on fire, hitting .382/.435/.658 (1.093) over his last 17 games (85 plate appearances), with five homers, six doubles, and four steals — and only seven strikeouts with eight walks.
Walcott had his 14-game on-base streak (.320/.438/.520 [.958]) with Double-A Frisco snapped on Saturday, a run that included 12 walks and only six strikeouts.
High-A Hub City RHP David Davalillo is one of 25 “rising MLB prospects” according to Jesús Cano and Mark Chiarelli (Baseball America).
Davalillo’s teammate, OF Keith Jones II, was the South Atlantic League Player of the Week for the week of June 2–8, hitting .409/.500/1.000 (1.500) with three homers and four doubles in six games.
Low-A Hickory OF Maxton Martin landed on Baseball America’s Hot Sheet this week, on the strength of a .400/.419/.767 (1.186) run with two homers and five doubles in six games.
Fitz-Gerald leads the ACL with six home runs, and is hitting .300/.400/.540 (.940) with nearly as many walks (14) as strikeouts (15)
In a story spotlighting seven ACL players who are standing out, Josh Norris (Baseball America) includes RHP David Hagaman, the Rangers’ fourth-round pick in 2024 who has just gotten on a pro mound after recovery from Tommy John surgery.
OF Marco Argudin was named Dominican Summer League Player of the Week after hitting .647 with a 1.790 OPS with five extra-base hits, six RBI, seven walks, and two steals in the first six games of the season for the DSL Rangers Red squad.
A few new mock drafts this week predicting who the Rangers will take next month with the 1.12 pick:
Carlos Collazo (Baseball America): Jojo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS
Jonathan Mayo (MLB Pipeline): Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson (Tex.) HS
Jim Callis (MLB Pipeline): Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak (Calif.) HS
Keith Law (The Athletic): Cunningham
Law adds this:
TROT COFFEY!
The 34 runs the Rangers scored in the Minnesota series this week tied for third most in franchise history for a three-game set.
The folks at MLB Network believe the Rangers will catch the Astros this season.
Jim Bowden (The Athletic) agrees.
Bowden also writes that “most in the industry believe [the Rangers, along with the Braves and Red Sox] will make trades to try to improve their respective rosters for the rest of this season and next rather than being typical sellers. . . . The Rangers will generally look for bats if they can’t get their own guys going.”
However, if the Rangers become sellers, Bowden believes the Cubs could target Mahle, the Padres, Royals, and Guardians could be interested in Garcia, and the Astros and Brewers could zero in on Smith.
David Adler (MLB.com) suggests that Corey Seager is a low-key surprise candidate for the All-Star Game, noting that “by Statcast's all-around offensive metric, expected wOBA, Seager ranks No. 1 among all MLB shortstops. He might be one of the unluckiest hitters in the Majors.”
The Mariners outrighted Leody Taveras after no team claimed him off DFA waivers. He’s singled three times in eight trips in his first two Tacoma Rainiers games on Friday and Saturday. As discussed in my Friday gamer, the significance here is that Seattle remains on the hook for the full $3.7 million-ish it absorbed by claiming Taveras off waivers from the Rangers in early May — and amount that fell off the Texas books as soon as the Mariners claimed him. Big deal from a CBT standpoint — and in one way of looking at things, allows the Rangers an added $3.7 million of wiggle room at the trade deadline (which would equate roughly to the balance of an $11 million player’s 2025 salary).
The Rainiers travel to Round Rock for six games June 24-29.
OF Travis Jankowski signed a minor-league deal with the Mets.
RHP Chris Stratton rejected the Dodgers’ outright assignment and elected to take free agency.
C Chad Wallach signed a minor-league deal with the Angels.
The Pirates re-signed IF Nick Solak to a minor-league deal.
The Giants designated IF Osleivis Basabe for assignment.
The Twins released RHP Alex Speas from Triple-A St. Paul.
From a survey conducted by The Athletic’s Dennis Lin:
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Posts since last Sunday’s Hops:
Yesterday was the second time in the past week that John Smith lack of hustle out of the box ALMOST cost him (and the team). First time was the "last out" grounder rolled to and botched by the 2nd baseman--Smith sauntered out of the box, and only when he saw the error did he bust it and barely was safe.....Second time was yesterday when he stood in the box an extended time before running and was barely safe at second. Both cases worked out OK, but not a good way to play. There is plenty to praise in his game, and wish some of it could be hustle.
I haven’t looked it up, but isn’t there anyone in the AAA rotation that could come up other than Rocker? Garabito is obviously out of the system, but there should be three other guys in the mix.
I guess none of those three are both in the 40-man roster and also pitching well enough to be a better option than Rocker. I just hate to bring Rocker up and down, potentially disrupting his long-term development.
Oh well, you do what you gotta do.