Sunday hops, 7-27-25.
A weekly compendium emptying the bench, with Rangers developments, rumors, and takes — and yes, a little TROT COFFEY.
It’s the final Sunday in July. Buckle up.
Let’s not waste any time, and jump right into this week’s Hops. Lots to unpack.
No paywall today — free for everyone.
Reinforcements.
The Rangers are getting closer to full health offensively.
DH/1B Joc Pederson was just activated and is in the lineup today, DH’ing and batting fifth.
C Kyle Higashioka is a day-to-day proposition as the Rangers have been giving his barking hamstring time to calm down.
The Rangers are targeting the August 8 home series opener against the Phillies for 1B Jake Burger’s return.
On the pitching side, RHP Josh Sborz made his fourth rehab appearance on Friday. His velocity reportedly remains a few ticks below his norm.
Incidentally, I thought Burger’s Baseball Savant pages were interesting, and worth sharing.
Burger’s bat speed hasn’t dropped, and his hard hit and barrel rates remain strong. But his average exit velo is down slightly, and the expected slash numbers have dipped considerably.
Take it for what it’s worth. I’m still completely good with the pair of trades that changed up the first base situation: Burger is earning $790,000 and is controllable through 2028, while Nathaniel Lowe is making $10.3 million and has one year left until free agency. With the self-imposed CBT mandate the Rangers are operating under, that $9.5 million saved was huge — and could be massive this week.
Burger has a below-average 88 OPS+. Lowe has a below-average 94 OPS+, and is rumored to be on the trade block for the Nationals.
As far as the other part of the Burger and Lowe trades are concerned, Texas moved three minor leaguers, IF Maximo Acosta, IF Echedry Vargas, and LHP Brayan Mendoza, and picked up LHP Robert Garcia.
Acosta, on Miami’s 40-man roster, has a Triple-A OPS of .661. Vargas has a .535 OPS in High-A (he won’t be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft until after 2026 if not added to the roster first). Mendoza, who must be rostered this winter to be shielded from the draft, has a 5.63 ERA in High-A and is walking five batters per nine innings.
Garcia will remain under club control through 2029. The league is hitting .230/.303/.331 (.634) off of him, and he has a 44/15 K/BB (unintentional walks, that is) in 40 ⅓ innings.
Viewed another way, I would absolutely take Burger, with his earning level and club control, over Lowe. And I would trade Acosta, Vargas, and Mendoza for Garcia in a heartbeat.
That said, the Rangers do need Burger to be better at the plate, or else those next three years of control may not be as valuable as they first seemed.
Workload issues.
There’s been plenty of discussion about the innings that Jacob deGrom has been logging, and what the plan might be to make sure he’s got a full tank in September and, the team hopes, for a month beyond that.
The issue has come up, too, with Nathan Eovaldi recently, as he’s dealt with triceps/elbow and back concerns at different times this year and this coaching staff’s track record suggests they are going to be mindful and conservative to make sure he’s at full strength when it matters most.
Workload incentives were coming up with regularity with Tyler Mahle when he was healthy, given that he was due up to $5 million extra on his deal by hitting certain innings counts — an added $500,000 for reaching 100 innings, $1 million for 110 innings, $1 million for 120 innings, $1 million for 130 innings, and $1.5 million for 140 innings. He’s at 77 frames now — and should he be physically ready to go at some point down the stretch, you would think Texas would want him starting games.
But I haven’t heard much chatter about the other three starting pitchers the Rangers have been counting on, and I think it’s worth looking closely at.
Patrick Corbin is at 104 ⅔ innings, which puts him on pace for roughly 160. I won’t get all granular on what his individual incentives are — you can check those out here if you’d like, as I broke them down in April — but suffice it to say that Corbin has already earned $700,000 in workload bonuses, and if he gets to 160 innings, there’s another $950,000 coming. It’s instead $700,000 extra if he ends up with more than 145 frames but fewer than 160.
Kumar Rocker has no workload incentives on his pre-arb, league-minimum deal, but the club has plenty of incentive to keep a close eye on his innings count, and I’m certain it’s been a talking point. Here’s what Rocker has thrown every year since arriving at Vanderbilt:
2019 (college freshman): 99 ⅔ innings
2020 (COVID season): 15 innings
2021 (college junior): 122 innings
2022 (Indie League/re-draft/Fall League): 34 innings
2023 (High-A): 28 innings until May Tommy John surgery
2024 (Complex League, Double-A, Triple-A, MLB): 48 ⅓ innings after July return from rehab
2025 (MLB, Double-A, Triple-A): 70 ⅔ innings
When the year began, what was the target number for Rocker? After last night’s four-inning start, he’s on pace for 106 innings. Is that more than what the organization has targeted for him this year, not only his first full season after elbow surgery but also given that he’s already thrown more innings than he has at any time since 2021?
Worth keeping an eye on — and listening to what the team has to say if the beats bring this up.
Jack Leiter is on the same league-minimum, incentives-free deal that Rocker is, but his history is also worth reviewing:
2020 (COVID season): 15 ⅔ innings
2021 (college sophomore): 110 innings
2022 (Double-A): 92 ⅔ innings
2023 (Double-A/Triple-A): 85 innings
2024 (Triple-A/MLB): 112 ⅔ innings
2025 (MLB): 86 ⅓ innings
Less tricky, perhaps, than Rocker, but he’s on pace for 137 frames — and you can can increase that by multiplying his innings count by 1.5 after today’s start. How comfortable will Texas be with that workload, even if Leiter maintains this level of productivity?
This is where you might be thinking Jon Gray can step in and make spot starts to give Rocker and Leiter a skipped turn here and there, and maybe the Rangers are thinking along those lines, too. But the way the bullpen is currently constructed, Gray might be moving toward becoming a late-inning fixture or at least a multi-inning set-up weapon — and you’re certainly not going to have any way to stretch him out fully in whatever his relief role is to make him a viable spot-start option.
Jacob Latz. Maybe?
Or a Gray-Latz piggyback, sort of like we saw last night in relief of Rocker, only at the start of a game instead?
We don’t know when Mahle will be back. The way Corbin is pitching, he’s not coming out of the rotation if this team is still in the race at that point and he’s anywhere close to as effective as he’s been. But with his own workload incentives, maybe the team does back off of him some — though I just can’t imagine if the Rangers are in the heat of a race that they’re going to take innings away from pitchers clearly giving them the best chance to win.
I think all of this makes the trade deadline priorities a little more interesting.
Luke Jackson and the CBT line.
On the subject of innings pitched, we went over some of the potential financial reasons behind the timing of the Rangers’ release of RHP Luke Jackson in yesterday’s COFFEY entry — namely, that he was one appearance away from earning a $175,000 workload bonus on top of the $450,000 he’d picked up after reaching earlier innings count thresholds.
Some added points:
The Rangers not only avoided having that $175,000 hit to their CBT payroll if he’d pitched in a 40th game — if he’d made it to 45, there would have been another $225,000 tacked on; to 50, another $250,000; to 55, another $300,000; and to 60, another $350,000. Assuming he remained healthy and not relegated to mop-up duties, he was on pace for getting right to that 60 number, but even if it were 55, that would been another $950,000 paid out in bonuses to Jackson and added to the CBT number.
Jackson was also due $50,000 if he were to finish 25 games, and more for every five games finished after that (up to 45). He was at 21 when released. I think it’s safe to say that only the first tier was probably in play, but if he were to finish four more games, then the reasonably foreseeable bonuses Texas avoided were right at $1 million.
The Tigers signed Jackson yesterday — surely to a league-minimum deal — and that helps Texas out a little. With just over a third of the season left, Detroit will owe him a little over $250,000 the rest of the way, which will be credited to the $500,000 or so the Rangers were on the hook for as far as his original $1.5 million deal was concerned. So the Rangers get about $250,000 dropped from their CBT number, meaning that much more cushion to add as the trade deadline nears.
Seager.
Say what you will about what the Most Valuable Player award should actually measure, but the Rangers are 42-31 when Seager plays this year, 13-19 when he doesn’t.
Extrapolate things, and Texas is a 93-69 team with him in 2025 — and 66-96 without.
I mean, good grief.
Run differential.
Seager isn’t responsible alone for this, but the offense sure did start cooking again once he did.
The Texas Rangers now have the second-highest run differential in the American League, trailing only the Yankees.
Yeah, it’s higher than Houston’s. By a lot — 22 runs to the good. And higher than every division leader other than one, the Cubs.
Four score and . . . not-four score: a Pythagorean update.
Which brings us to our weekly look at the Pythagorean view of this team.
The MLB average for team runs scored in a game this year held steady this week at 4.39.
When the Rangers score even a little less than that league average — specifically, four runs — they have a 41-10 record.
When they don’t: 14-40.
Texas sits at 54-50. But its Pythagorean win-loss is 61-44.
And I’m not making this up: if the Rangers were scoring runs at the league average — not a dominant offense, but an average one — their Pythagorean record would be 65-40. That would be the best record in baseball right now.
And it extrapolates to 100-62.
That would be a franchise record . . . even with an average offense.
Postseason odds.
FanGraphs now gives the Rangers 44.5 percent odds to reach the playoffs, up dramatically from 23.9 percent a week ago — and 14.6 percent the week before that.
Win streaks are fun.
Near-final update on draft signings, bonus pool impact.
Here are the Rangers’ reported signings from this year’s amateur draft class, along with where the club stands with respect to the cap on its bonus pool dollars. (Here, in my draft recap, is the math on how this is all calculated.)
Green amounts in the “+/-” column indicate how far under slot a player signed for; red amounts represent over-slot amounts. The one figure in the “OVERALL” column shows up next to the most recent announced signing, indicating how far under (green) or over (red) the Rangers collectively stand relative to assigned slot values.
As I suggested yesterday in my last update, I think Texas was able to have paid 20th-round OF Jamaurion McQueen up to $320,040 in his $150,000 slot without forfeiting a 2026 draft pick. I suspect we’ll find out soon enough.
Looking ahead to the 2026 draft.
If the season were to end today, the Rangers would slot 18th in next year’s amateur draft, with a 0.37 percent chance of CooperFlagging the lottery.
This Week in Nestico.
How about that gap between No. 1 and No. 2?
This Week in Roster Reconstruction.
Busy week. But we’re heading into one that could be much bigger — in impact if not quantity.
July 21: RHP Chris Martin placed on the 15-day injured list (left calf strain)
July 21: RHP Cole Winn recalled from Triple-A Round Rock
July 21: 3B Josh Jung recalled from Triple-A Round Rock
July 21: 1B Justin Foscue optioned to Triple-A Round Rock
July 21: OF/IF Michael Helman recalled from Triple-A Round Rock
July 21: OF Alejandro Osuna optioned to Triple-A Round Rock
July 23: RHP Jon Gray activated from the 60-day injured list
July 23: RHP Luke Jackson designated for assignment
July 24: DH/1B Joc Pederson sent on a rehab assignment to Double-A Frisco
July 25: RHP Luke Jackson unconditionally released
July 25: RHP Josh Sborz’s rehab assignment transferred from Double-A Frisco to Triple-A Round Rock
July 25: OF/IF Sam Haggerty activated from the 10-day injured list
July 25: IF Cody Freeman optioned to Triple-A Round Rock
July 27: DH/1B Joc Pederson activated from the 10-day injured list
July 27: OF/IF Michael Helman optioned to Triple-A Round Rock
Though Helman ceded his spot to Pederson rather than 1B Rowdy Tellez, it’s probably fair to assume that Tellez is on notice for Burger’s eventual return. IF/OF Ezequiel Duran was safer than Helman given that Josh Smith is rarely out of the lineup these days, and Duran is the more versatile and productive infield defender.
Incidentally, very happy to see that Texas didn’t need to make use of the 7-day concussion IL for Marcus Semien. Warrior.
Farm stuff.
RHP Leandro Lopez, my preseason No. 39 prospect in the Rangers system, was promoted from High-A Hub City to Double-A Frisco, and in his first six RoughRiders innings (one start and one relief appearance), he’s scattered two hits and three walks without allowing a run, with 11 strikeouts. A dramatic improvement in his strike-throwing has boosted Lopez’s prospect status quite a bit.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the timing of the promotion could be tied into some current trade talks. Teams like to scout young pitchers against Double-A lineups, if appropriate.
The Arizona Complex League Rangers fell short of the league championship series, falling to the Giants in the semifinals, 4-1.
ACL OF Braylin Morel was promoted before the playoffs to Low-A Hickory, after the 19-year-old had hit .268/.302/.423 (.725) against Complex League pitching, though he fanned 40 times in 149 trips while drawing only five walks.
ACL SS Yolfran Castillo landed the No. 2 spot on Baseball America’s latest Hot Sheet, after he hit .409/.435/.636 in 22 at-bats over the last week without striking out. He also swatted the first home run of his pro career.
Dominican Summer League monster OF Marco Argudin, a 19-year-old the Rangers signed out of Cuban in February for a mere $30,000, is hitting .397/.497/.587 (1.083) with even splits and 21 walks against 12 strikeouts.
And Argudin did play in the DSL All-Star Game after all, contrary to my note last week. One source explained: “[The] DSL, in typical DSL fashion, accidentally omitted him from the roster they released in error. Classic.”
Tomorrow is the deadline to sign draft picks, but it appears the Rangers are finished, signing all but the picks in Round 13 (RHP Aiden Robertson), Round 14 (RHP Landon Manzi), and Round 16 (RHP Jaxon Grossman). When we get McQueen’s signing bonus, I’ll finalize the bonus pool chart that appears above and that I’ve been updating in the daily COFFEY’s.
Carlos Collazo )Baseball America) offers a recap of the Rangers’ draft haul:
He suggests that the Rangers “grabbed a lot of upside in this draft, though many of their players will need plenty of seasoning or refinement in specific areas of their games. SS Gavin Fien was one of the most accomplished summer performers in the prep class, but he will need to find a defensive home. RHP AJ Russell has one of the most elite fastballs in the class, but he has dealt with injury, needs innings and some secondary refinement. Scouts drool over OF/RHP Josh Owens, but he’s a projection player on both sides of the ball and could become a longer ETA if the two-way selection is a real indication of how he’ll be used in pro ball. Even seventh-round OF Paxton Kling is bursting with tools and athleticism but could be a slow play on the hitting front in pro ball.”
The “most interesting pick” for Collazo in Rounds 4-10 was the seventh-rounder Kling. Collazo pulled from his predraft profile that Kling’s “tools and athleticism fit in the first 10 rounds, but exactly where he goes will depend on a team’s confidence in the strides he can continue to make as a hitter.”
Collazo’s “most interesting pick” in Rounds 11-20 was Robertson, who, again, didn’t sign.
In a Statcast-based piece, Eli Ben-Porat (Baseball America) identified two “unheralded standouts” from the Texas draft:
RHP Mason McConnaughey (Round 3), due to a “nice fastball, with a strong 2500 rpm spin rate. The college ball usually generates more movement, but McConnaughey might be able to squeeze out a more vertical delivery and maintain a plus riding fastball. The slider is a great pitch, but will need a couple more ticks to be major league viable.”
RHP J.D. McReynolds (Round 10), whose “sinker and changeup both have great shape. The changeup has huge run and depth, and should tunnel reasonably well off of the sinker. . . . He’ll need a reliable curveball or sweeper at a similar velocity band to the changeup for this arsenal to work.”
Keith Law (The Athletic) summarizes his thoughts on the Rangers’ draft: “I really like what the Rangers did in the first four rounds, although after that they lost me a little.”
Michael Donodeo and Jacob Edelman (Baseball Prospectus) suggest in their review of the Rangers’ draft that first-rounder Gavin Fien “has an unorthodox hand load that might lead to some ground balls in the future, but he has a great blend of contact and EVs, and we think he sticks at third.” They call McReynolds their favorite pick following Round 3, based on “an outlier changeup that combines velo separation, depth, and run” plus a “low-90s fastball and mid-80s slider have some good traits.”
In his updated Top 60 Prospects list, Law installs Double-A Frisco SS Sebastian Walcott at No. 6, down from a preseason ranking of No. 2. Among Law’s comments: “Walcott is definitely not a shortstop, and I have heard from some scouts that they don’t think he’s going to stay on the dirt at all, although for now I am sticking with third base as his ultimate position. . . . He’s very physical and is going to end up with huge power, so the fact that he’s already showing good command of the zone is a big positive. Thirty homers a year with strong walk totals will play at any position.”
Writing up Walcott as part of a Midseason Top 50 update, Grant Schiller (Baseball Prospectus) disagrees on the defensive outlook: “His defensive actions at shortstop have grown from disastrous to promising enough to project him as a long-term shortstop. He won’t be, at least at first, because his bat will going to get him to the bigs before both his glove is ready and before Corey Seager moves off the position. Right field or third base will make a fine home.” As for the overall package, Schiller writes: “It may take a couple years yet to get his tools and comfort against top-level pitching to the point he can truly cut loose his elite pop, but I haven’t seen anything this year to give me pause. It’ll happen. This dude’s a star.”
TROT COFFEY!
Bob Nightengale (USA Today) reports that the Rangers “still plan to be aggressive at the deadline, believing that if they can just get into the playoffs, they like their chances as much as anyone with their fabulous rotation led by Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi.”
Ken Rosenthal (The Athletic) suggests the Rangers “are trending in a positive direction and moving closer to adding than subtracting.” He adds that Texas “will focus on a high-leverage reliever,” though “[a]nother starter also could be a possibility” and “a right-handed bat [might also be] a priority.”
Nightengale adds that the belief around the league is that the best three relievers traded at the deadline will be Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran, Pittsburgh’s David Bednar, and St. Louis’s Ryan Helsley. He suggests the Guardians “have no interest in trading reliever Cade Smith and would have to be overwhelmed by an offer to move closer Emmanuel Clase.”
Further, though Braves DH Marcell Ozuna has earned 10-and-5 rights, meaning he can veto any trade, Nightengale reports that Ozuna “is now expected to approve any deal if the team guarantees him everyday playing time.”
With Pederson back, I can’t imagine the Rangers would have anything but the short end of a DH platoon to tempt Ozuna with.
Anthony Franco (MLB Trade Rumors) handicaps OF Adolis Garcia as the No. 41 trade candidate around the league, suggesting the Rangers “could try to shed the remaining portion of Garcia’s $9.25 million salary to clear space for a run at a bigger bat.” Franco includes Gray and C Jonah Heim as candidates outside his top 50.
Right after the Braves fell to the Rangers in 10 innings last night, they placed the game’s starter, RHP Grant Holmes, on the injured list with elbow inflammation.
I may be forgetting someone, but that’s at least Holmes, Cubs LHP Justin Steele, A’s RHP Jose Leclerc, and A’s RHP J.T. Ginn as pitchers who have landed on the injured list with significant arm issues immediately after facing the Rangers this season.
After coming out of an April 22 appearance against Texas after making three pitches, Leclerc was deactivated with a lat strain. It was announced this week that the 31-year-old would have season-ending shoulder surgery.
Texas signed 33-year-old RHP Carl Edwards Jr., their 48th-round pick (not a typo) in 2011, to a deal with Triple-A Round Rock. After rocketing through the system, Edwards was sent to the Cubs in July 2013, along with RHP Neil Ramirez, RHP Justin Grimm, and 3B Mike Olt, for RHP Matt Garza. Edwards, who has now pitched for seven MLB clubs in 11 seasons, had been pitching in Mexico since the Angels released him after two big-league relief appearances in April.
I checked to make sure: IF Brody Schumaker, son of Rangers Senior Advisor Skip Schumaker, is still committed to play at TCU when he finishes up at Santa Margarita Catholic High School in California a year from now.
You really should listen to the latest episode of Thad Levine’s Rosters to Rings podcast, in which Thad and guest co-host Jon Daniels spend an hour-plus visiting with Michael Young about how and why he’s wired the way he is, as a competitor and leader, with the trio sharing some amazing memories about Young’s journey as a Ranger and the 2010 season in particular (including some about this moment, which is sure to give you chills). It’s fantastic.
Nick Kurtz is hitting .296/.345/.481 (.826) in eight games against the Rangers this season. Slump.
Trade Deadline Special!
As many of you have already taken advantage of, I’ve set up a Newberg Report discount between now and the end of July — meaning this Thursday, when the trade deadline hits — basically allowing you to sign up for the next 12 months of content for the price of eight.
We’ve already run daily TROT COFFEY’s every day since Tuesday, and I expect to continue sending one out every day around lunchtime — and likely more than one on the 30th and 31st (there were five on deadline day last year). Whether the Rangers continue to push in the direction of buying, or conceivably going in the other direction, these next few days are going to be busy and likely impactful. There will undoubtedly be all kinds of content, between the local beats and the national websites, passing along rumored trades and other developments involving Texas — and though for 11 ½ months out of the year, those slot into the TROT COFFEY section in these weekly Hops entries, for this final week and a walk of July I tend to send COFFEY’s out every day.
To summarize:
For the rest of July, if you sign up for one year, you will only be charged for eight months — $56 will get you a full 12 months of everything I write, not to mention full access to everything I’ve written before in this space, including my (very long) draft recap last week. Less than five bucks a month!
Note: This deal is also available if you’re already a monthly subscriber and want to upgrade to an annual subscription.
I’ve set this up not only so you can take advantage of the special for yourself — you can also arrange, with one extra click, to give it to someone else as a gift.
(By the way, four of you have reached out to tell me Substack was still showing you a $72 charge for the Special, rather than $56. I’ve settled up with those three to make it right, and will do that for you, too — if you have signed up for the Special (or plan to) and for whatever reason it charges you $72, email me back and I’ll refund the difference to you right away.)
Again, this offer expires on July 31st. You may redeem it here: The Newberg Report Trade Deadline Special.
Premium subscription options.
162+
We’ve had our first game-watching gathering of the year and our first Zoom Q&A with a Rangers player development official, and will schedule another of both soon.
If you’re not a 162+ and would like to consider upgrading to that level, here’s how you can get it done.
Lifetime subs
I’m also offering a permanent, lifetime, $1,000 subscription to the Newberg Report, which comes with all of the extras that 162+ subscribers get. Thanks to those of you who have already signed on for it!
We do still have the $7/month plan, the $72/year option, and the premium $200/year 162+ deal, each of which you can sign up for here. If you’re interested in the lifetime arrangement, let me know by email or in the Comments. We can arrange something via PayPal or Venmo or Zelle.
I’m basing the concept on something Joe Sheehan offers his subscribers:
ICYMI.
Posts since last Sunday’s Hops — super-busy week of writing:
Another day, another reason, or several reasons, not to trade Adolis Garcia.
By the way, Mr. Newberg, if one were to buy a lifetime subscription and you were to die tomorrow, would there be some sort of refund, or does 'lifetime' just mean 'lifetime'?
In 2023, we won the World Series, led by offense, with Seager and Semien finishing 2nd and 3rd in the MVP voting.
In 2025, if we win the World Series, it will be led by our pitching, and deGrom and Eovaldi finishing 2nd and 3rd in the Cy Young voting.
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes…”