You're Philadelphia.
You’re Philadelphia.
You’re coming off three bad seasons, each worse than the last, and you’ve made the decision that there’s not much you can do to force the current window back open, and to even envision a window opening a couple years down the road, you have to impactfully replenish a flagging farm system that’s been firmly situated in the league’s bottom third those same three years that you’ve failed to post a winning record at the big league level.
Jimmy Rollins, gone.
Marlon Byrd, gone.
Those are your Gagne and Lofton trades.
There’s still a Teixeira Trade to be made.
There are two key differences, of course, between what Ruben Amaro Jr. faces with Cole Hamels and what Jon Daniels had on his hands with Mark Teixeira in 2007.
First, this is the winter, not July when teams in the race and staring at a two-month sprint to 162+ tend to act a little more desperately and with less of a stubborn attitude when it comes to parting with minor league assets.
Second, Daniels in 2007 was leading a relatively new front office group that had laid the groundwork with ownership for a teardown plan at the time he was hired, and the pitch that spring was more about timing than about the overall concept. Amaro, on the other hand, surely is just trying to survive. The first three seasons of his tenure as Phillies GM went very well, the next three not so much.
A year ago Jack Zduriencik in Seattle was thought to be on a hot seat, needing to win to save his job. He did, and did.
Amaro has no real chance to win in 2015 (a reality he’s clearly accepted, having moved Rollins and Byrd and Antonio Bastardo already this winter for prospects). The test he needs to pass is to overhaul the talent base, to repopulate the top two tiers of his farm system, to restore hope in a franchise that’s likely going to make it four straight seasons without clearing .500.
Amaro can’t get this wrong. He can trade Hamels now. He can trade Hamels in July. He can opt not to trade Hamels.
And he not only has to choose the plan correctly, but in the case of the trade categories, he has to trade him well — far better than he traded Cliff Lee (2009) and far better than he came out net in his two Hunter Pence trades (2001/2012). Tack on the questionable mega-contracts he’s handed out — Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon foremost among them — and the track record stacks up poorly.
Amaro can’t get this wrong.
Texas had the game’s number 28 farm system, according to Baseball America, entering its 2007 teardown season, and that ranking was published a few weeks before the club traded its top prospect, John Danks, to the White Sox. The next four in the system: Eric Hurley, Edinson Volquez (who’d spit up his big league looks in 2005 and 2006), Thomas Diamond, and John Mayberry Jr.
That group was no worse then than Philadelphia’s is now, though the additions of Ben Lively, Zach Eflin, and Tom Windle in the Byrd and Rollins trades help.
If Amaro trades Hamels, he’s going to get three or four prospects, and it’s a safe bet that at least two of them will push Lively, Eflin, and Windle further back in the sentence.
Hamels hasn’t asked to be traded, and though no-trade clauses are in many cases just levers to guarantee a club option or secure some other sort of added compensation, let’s assume the clubs Hamels cannot block a trade to — reportedly the Braves, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, and Rangers (though Bob Nightengale [USA Today] says the Rangers and Yankees are the only AL clubs, which would mean the Angels are in fact on his no-trade list) — are the ones whose systems Amaro has whiteboarded and nearly memorized at this point.
Add the Red Sox, who are among the 20 teams Hamels has on his no-trade list (after they were not on his list a year earlier), because every national writer is.
According to Jim Salisbury (CSNPhilly.com), the teams showing the most interest in Hamels are the Rangers, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Padres. For Texas, St. Louis, and San Diego, Hamels is a four-year, $96 million pitcher. For Boston, assuming it would need to guarantee the lefthander’s 2019 option to get him to allow a trade to go through, he’d be a five-year, $110 million guy.
As for what Philadelphia is seeking in return for Hamels, one National League GM told Nick Cafardo (Boston Globe) two weeks ago that the Phillies “want everyone’s top guys and you can’t blame them. But I think they’re getting more realistic. The team that can offer them prospects and a Major League-ready player or pitcher will get him.”
The articles that talk about the Padres’ interest routinely mention outfielder Hunter Renfroe, catcher Austin Hedges, and righthander Matt Wisler. Surely A.J. Preller wouldn’t part with all three for the San Diego native, though (1) he’s demonstrated zero attachment to the prospects he’s inherited, and (2) you would think he’d need more of a financial subsidy from the Phillies than the other three teams, which would mean he’d theoretically have to part with more talent than a team not insisting on as much cash to help pay Hamels.
The stories about Boston and Hamels talk about catcher Blake Swihart, second baseman-outfielder Mookie Betts, righthander Matt Barnes, and corner bat Garin Cecchini. Most, however, believe the Red Sox consider Betts basically untouchable.
St. Louis: righthanders Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales, and outfielders Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty. Not all four, but certainly two and maybe three.
Texas? Salisbury suggests the Rangers “will be very protective of hitters Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara” but “do have a top catching prospect in Jorge Alfaro.” The Ticket’s Norm Hitzges suggested yesterday that the Phillies would want Gallo and Alfaro and more, or a package headed by Gallo and Rougned Odor and Jake Thompson. Not happening, and not happening.
(Daniels said on MLB Network Radio Friday afternoon that while he’s still looking to add a starting pitcher before spring training, there’s no truth to any speculation that he’d trade both Gallo and Alfaro for Hamels.)
It’s reasonable to assume that the Phillies, if Salisbury’s note on Gallo and Mazara was triggered by some intel that any talks between the clubs have moved beyond those two, would expect Alfaro to be paired with either Thompson or Chi Chi Gonzalez, and then another player or two from the tier that includes pitchers Luke Jackson, Luis Ortiz (as a player to be named later), Andrew Faulkner, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher, Corey Knebel, Keone Kela, and Marcos Diplan, and hitters Lewis Brinson, Nick Williams, Ronald Guzman, Ryan Cordell, Travis Demeritte, and Jairo Beras.
(No chance on Odor.)
It would be a massive price to pay, but it would be for a lefthander who will pitch all of 2015 at age 31, and at four years and $96 million he would offer the controllability that a guy like Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, David Price, Doug Fister, or Yavani Gallardo would not — and at the same time wouldn’t take the years or dollars that Jon Lester just got, Max Scherzer is about to get, and even James Shields is expected to eclipse this winter.
Interestingly, Gerry Fraley (Dallas Morning News) reports that the Rangers have in fact “remained in contact with Philadelphia about Hamels,” and that the “stumbling block appears to be money.”
The fact that Texas would need the Phillies to kick a meaningful amount of cash in is no surprise.
The comment that the subsidy level is the “stumbling block” would seem to imply that Amaro and Daniels have a greater comfort level with the players who would need to be in the deal. (That piece, of course, is likely a moving target — as Fraley notes, “[h]ow much the Phillies would be willing to eat would hinge on which prospects the Rangers would be willing to include in a deal.”)
But still: if the names Amaro seeks and the names Daniels is willing to discuss have enough overlap that the “stumbling block appears to be money,” that’s pretty fascinating.
If the offer were, say, Alfaro and Gonzalez and Eickhoff and Williams — which would surprise me — I would expect the Rangers to insist on a tremendous cash infusion from the Phillies, turning Hamels into something along the lines of a $15-17 million pitcher annually (with most of the subsidy front-loaded), rather than one toting the $24 million AAV that his contract guarantees. (Fraley writes that the Rangers have “about $16 million [to fill] the remainder of the club, under the payroll limit set by ownership. That group has increased the limit in the past.” He adds that if Texas would put Gallo and Thompson in a deal, “the Rangers could have Hamels” and “could get about $30 million in salary savings” — which works out to a $16.5 million AAV.)
The hypothetical Alfaro-Gonzalez-Eickhoff-Williams package would arguably be stronger than Swihart-Barnes-Cecchini (if only because of the difference between Gonzalez and Barnes) — hey, maybe as a sweetener Texas could even waive its right to purchase Odubel Herrera back if he doesn’t make Philadelphia’s roster (though he’s a strong bet to make it) — but then again the Red Sox probably wouldn’t require as much cash from the Phillies.
Though they’d require Hamels’s agreement, something Texas wouldn’t have to secure.
The very first trade Amaro made as Phillies GM was with Daniels. In November 2008, two weeks into his job, Amaro sent outfielder Greg Golson to Texas for Mayberry.
The two have made one trade since then, when Texas sent Michael Young to Philadelphia for righthanders Lisalverto Bonilla and Josh Lindblom in 2012.
Young spent five months as teammates with Hamels, and I’d love to know what he’s recommending to Daniels now as far as loading up for Hamels is concerned. Young’s voice has become a very important one upstairs very quickly, and though I doubt there are many in the game with a bad thing to say about Hamels, Young’s insights in this case unquestionably carry a lot of weight.
As for the timing of any Hamels trade, if that’s in fact the door Amaro chooses, Jeff Sullivan (FanGraphs/Fox Sports) weighs in on the dilemma between striking now and waiting until July:
“This is the dangerous game. By holding on to Cole Hamels, Ruben Amaro raises the stakes. There’s more for him to gain, and more for him to lose. If it’s July, and Hamels has been his usual self, Amaro can get away with demanding one or two upper-tier young players. But Hamels could also very possibly blast his trade value into nothingness. Justin Verlander’s 2014 season literally just happened. There’s an awful lot riding on this move, for Amaro and the organization. By waiting, they’d be at least maximizing the potential upside. That’s the optimistic perspective.”
What if the biceps tendinitis that sidelined Hamels for the first three weeks in 2014 resurfaces? What if he loses his bite the way Verlander did last summer? Lee to Seattle for Phillippe Aumont, J.C. Ramirez, and Tyson Gilles in 2010 didn’t cost Amaro his job, but he just can’t afford to miss on a Hamels deal and expect to continue working for the Phillies — and arguably the odds of missing increase if Hamels continues to get the ball as a Phillie.
Like Sullivan says, by waiting until July to trade Hamels, Amaro would arguably maximize the potential upside.
He’d also be increasing the chances that Hamels’s value plummets from where it sits today.
If there’s a trade offer on the table now that Amaro can’t reasonably expect to improve upon in July — and that’s assuming Hamels has a dominant four months — doesn’t he have to follow the Rollins and Byrd trades up with the bellwether move, the signature deal that instantly ignites his farm system and redefines what the Philadelphia Phillies are and when the window opens, setting up everything else that club does going forward?
I’m not suggesting Amaro needs to trade Hamels to Texas (especially without knowing what the deal would look like — though, yeah, this would be the Triple Word Score), as opposed to Boston (which would really amp up Boston-Philly on Opening Day in Citizens Bank Park, huh?) or anyone else.
I’m not suggesting I’d have an easy time — as much as I love the idea of a rotation headed by Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, and Hamels, with Martin Perez half a season away from returning — wrapping my head around the thought of Jorge Alfaro getting to the big leagues in someone else’s uniform, and I’m not making plans yet to recreate the title banner on these emails.
Really, I’m not suggesting, at least in the context of this morning’s report, that we break down the concept of overlaying four years of Hamels atop two or three years of Darvish (at least) and four of Holland and more than that of Perez (plus at least two years of Adrian Beltre) and of Thompson and (or?) of Gonzalez — really, the idea would be to maximize the Beltre/Darvish window — because for now I’m not really focused, for once, on whether this makes sense for the Texas Rangers, and I’m asking you, for the moment, to step out of those shoes yourselves and consider this from a different perspective.
You’re Philadelphia.