Sunday hops, 6-9-24.
A weekly compendium emptying the bench, with Rangers developments, rumors, and takes — and yes, a little TROT COFFEY.
The Stars lost every Game 1 in their three-series playoff run, and were two wins short of reaching the Stanley Cup Finals.
Both in 2023-24 and in 2022-23.
The Mavs have reached the NBA Finals, but in losing the opener in Boston on Thursday night ran their streak to three Game 1 losses out of four this postseason.
They also lost all three Game 1’s in their last playoff run in 2021-22.
As basketball and hockey fans, we’ve grown accustomed to Game 1 losses in playoff series — 12 of the last 13 — but also accustomed to our team overcoming it. The Stars and Mavs won eight of those 12, with a chance for the basketball team to make it nine these next two weeks against the Celtics.
The Rangers didn’t give us the same experience last October, winning Game 1 in all four of their postseason rounds. But we’re getting a taste of it now, with Texas dropping eight of its last nine series openers — with the lone exception, ironically, the home series against the Diamondbacks two weeks ago. Not coincidentally, the Rangers have lost seven of those nine series, including the one that concludes this afternoon.
The stakes are different, obviously, but so are the opportunities to wipe away slow starts. These aren’t best-of-sevens. And while losing a baseball series in May or June — unlike one of those in basketball or hockey — isn’t followed by exit interviews, it’s incumbent on the Rangers to start stacking up series wins.
Long way to go in the season, to be sure. But the next six weeks are important, if for no other reason than some potentially season-altering (and next-few-seasons-altering) decisions that Chris Young and his group will need to make soon after the All-Star Game and Adrian Beltre ceremony are in the rearview mirror and the trade deadline approaches.
On to this week’s Hops, free for all to read.
This Week in Roster Reconstruction.
Before one adjustment to the pitching staff on Saturday (more on that shortly), the Rangers made only one roster move over the last week — a refreshing development — recalling infielder Davis Wendzel from Triple-A Round Rock on Friday while designating outfielder Derek Hill for assignment.
The move was made to give the team added protection in the infield while Corey Seager nurses his tight hamstring, and the good news there is that the Rangers expect Seager back soon enough that they didn’t want to deactivate him for 10 days. Hill has had a strong season at Round Rock but, at age 28, is not a player Texas was likely to keep on the 40-man roster into the winter, when he’d be able to leave as a free agent. He has served his purpose so far, playing well enough in Triple-A to give the club some depth to call on.
The club now has five more days to trade, release, or outright Hill — but, because he’s been outrighted previously in his career, he has the procedural right to decline a return to the minors and take immediate free agency should Texas get him through waivers. It’s possible another team approaches the Rangers with a cash offer to acquire Hill during that period to roster him before he has the chance to shop himself league-wide. It’s similar to how the Rangers acquired Adolis Garcia in December of 2019; one difference is the Cardinals would have been able to outright Garcia, then age 26, as he’d never been outrighted before, but they probably had intel that he would have been claimed on waivers by some team and therefore were willing to move him for cash rather than lose him for nothing.
It won’t be surprising if Wendzel’s stay this time is brief. As of Friday, Justin Foscue was eligible to come off of the 60-day injured list, and he’s on a rehab assignment right now in Arizona. He got four Arizona Complex League at-bats as a DH on Wednesday, and six more along with first base duties on Friday and Saturday.
There’s no procedural rule requiring Foscue to return to the big leagues when he’s activated — he’s on his first option in 2024 and can easily be assigned to Round Rock — but given the recent tactical decision Bruce Bochy has made to sit Nathaniel Lowe against most lefties, Foscue would give Texas a right-handed-hitting option at first base. He’s not exceedingly more seasoned at that position than Ezequiel Duran, but Duran is more valuable on the left side of the infield (or in left field), and getting both bats in the lineup given the team’s pronounced struggles against southpaws is probably a look the team is at least considering. It is interesting, at the very least, that Foscue played first base the last two days, given that three of his four defensive assignments before his oblique injury (including his one in the big leagues) were at second base.
The Hill move not only provides added infield protection; it also clears a 40-man roster spot to pave the way for Foscue’s return.
Bochy told reporters this week that Evan Carter could miss an “extended period time” with what the team is now identifying as a stress reaction. He’d missed a week early last month with back stiffness but after returning and going 0 for 19 with six strikeouts, just one walk, and not a lot of hard contact, he was deactivated with what was then described as a lumbar strain. Since Carter was IL’d, Wyatt Langford has started seven games in left field and two at DH.
As for the pitching staff . . . .
Before yesterday’s game, the Rangers activated Jon Gray from the injured list and optioned Gerson Garabito to Round Rock. With Nathan Eovaldi scheduled to start today and the Rangers off tomorrow, the only reason to activate Gray before he’d be called on to make a start against the Dodgers on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday — as opposed to keeping Garabito up (he threw 17 pitches in an effective inning on Friday) or recalling, say, Cole Winn or Yerry Rodriguez to give Texas some bullpen protection before Gray’s start in case the club didn’t want to go back to Garabito this weekend — would be to have Gray available to make a relief appearance in the meantime, just as he did on April 20 in Atlanta (1 ⅔ perfect innings, four of his five outs on strikes). And he did just that, tossing a brilliant 2 ⅓ innings yesterday (one hit, one walk, four strikeouts).
Gray had thrown a side session on Tuesday, the same day that Max Scherzer threw 40 pitches of live BP in advance of a rehab start he’ll make today for Round Rock, with plans to go 45-50 pitches deep. Tyler Mahle threw live BP on Wednesday, his first time to face hitters since Tommy John surgery 13 months ago. He’s reportedly scheduled to throw again this coming Wednesday and at least two more times after that before heading out on his own rehab assignment.
Kumar Rocker — who underwent TJ surgery on May 22, 2023, the same day as Mahle — faced hitters for the first time in over a year on Friday when he threw 20 pitches to Rangers minor leaguers in Surprise. Assistant GM Ross Fenstermaker raved on yesterday’s radio pregame show about the physical condition Rocker is in.
Josh Sborz threw a bullpen session on Wednesday, and Cody Bradford threw from 120 feet the same day as he continues his recovery from a stress fracture in a rib.
Jacob deGrom, whose TJ surgery was four weeks after Mahle’s and Rocker’s, stretched his throwing program from 60 to 90 feet this week and, barring any changes, could move his rehab to a pitching mound in a little more than a week.
Garabito is a prime candidate to be designated for assignment once Scherzer is ready to return from the 60-day injured list, with Bradford and Brock Burke presumably candidates to return off the 60 not long after Scherzer (Mahle is likely a July addition at the soonest, with deGrom on an August timetable). At that point, Rodriguez’s roster spot could be in jeopardy — I’m going to assume no further moves of players to the 60 — as the 26-year-old reliever is out of options and could be getting close to out of leash.
Sborz could be back late this month but he’s not on the 60, so no player will need to be dropped from the 40-man roster to accommodate his return.
Incidentally, Rangers starting pitchers have now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 20 straight games, posting a 2.92 ERA over that span. It’s the longest streak in franchise history since the team moved from Washington, D.C. to Arlington 52 years ago.
Just as we all predicted going into the season with three anticipated rotation mainstays (deGrom, Scherzer, Mahle) yet to pitch, and Bradford joining them on the injured list after three starts: the rotation has been the most effective unit on the team through 40 percent of the season. Easily.
2024.
What a strange season. Only six of the 15 American League teams have winning records . . . to which the National League says, “Hold my Dollar Dogs.” Only four NL teams are over .500.
Fortunately for the Rangers, the bottom-heavy state of the league has them in lurking distance despite the 30-34 record they take into Sunday. Five games out in the AL West, they’re only three games back in the Wild Card race even though they’re just on a 76-win pace.
The troublesome parts of this: the Astros have pulled to within a half-game of Texas in the division, and there are seven teams within 3.5 games of the final Wild Card slot, with five of them ahead of the Rangers.
Interestingly, only five teams — the White Sox, A’s, Angels, Marlins, and Rockies — should probably accept that they’re out of this year’s race. Others will join them over the next month and a half, but for now, there could be some competitive allure to being a seller in late July.
Awesome.
Someone else can do the research on how many times the All-Star Game has been managed by a skipper in his own ballpark — Bochy gets that honor next month by virtue of the Rangers playing in last year’s World Series — but it’s very cool that, three days before as part of the kickoff to All-Star Week, Beltre and Michael Young will manage the Futures Game. Beltre will lead the AL Futures staff, with Young in charge of the NL squad of top prospects in the Saturday afternoon, July 13 event.
Running objection (update).
Baby steps, but encouraging: the Rangers outstole their opponents this week, succeeding on two of three tries (the lone failure was when Duran jumped early from first base on Wednesday, pinch-running for the injured Seager). The opposition stole one base.
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Farm stuff.
Jack Leiter and Johnny Cueto had bad starts in Round Rock’s doubleheader in Oklahoma City on Thursday. I’m not really motivated to dive into it any further.
The Rangers announced their May players of the month:
High-A Hickory’s Montalvo is the probably the most exciting of the bunch, for now. He and Low-A Down East righty Alejandro Rosario have joined Double-A Frisco’s Emiliano Teodo and Dane Acker and Hickory’s Winston Santos in the breakout column this spring, though Crawdads lefty Mitch Bratt has also been very good since a bad first start and undrafted free agent righthander Ryan Lobus is well past being dismissed as a fluke. In 40 ⅓ innings between Down East and Hickory, the 23-year-old Mercer University product has amassed 55 strikeouts with only 10 walks, and is holding opponents to a .175/.239/.315 slash line.
Montalvo and Villavicencio, the latter of whom was a $10,000 sign out of Venezuela in 2021, were named Pitchers of the Month in the South Atlantic League and Arizona Complex League, respectively.
Hickory shortstop Sebastian Walcott got off to a slow start this season but has been quietly good since mid-April. Despite playing in the Sally League at more than four years younger than the average player, the 18-year-old has a .753 OPS in his last 39 games with 24 walks and 39 strikeouts, a shockingly K/BB good rate considering his age and power profile. Fellow Crawdads outfielder Anthony Gutierrez has a .371/.425/.571 (.996 OPS) line in 10 games since returning from the injured list.
Down East lefthander Kohl Drake, who has been working in tandem with righty Paul Bonzagni (alternating starts and piggybacking on the other when in relief), has 51 strikeouts in 32 innings, walking only seven and scattering 24 hits.
Frisco has won 11 of its last 14 games. No Double-A team in baseball has a better record than the RoughRiders’ 36-20 mark.
I recommend this fascinating Twitter thread from former Rangers minor leaguer Josh Gessner, an Australian righthander whom came over from the Phillies in a six-righty trade, along with Spencer Howard and Kevin Gowdy, for Kyle Gibson, Ian Kennedy, and Hans Crouse in 2021. Gessner is “stepping away from professional baseball”; he was careful not to use the word “retiring.” He’s a good writer with an interesting perspective, with posts like this one on his personal blog about what it’s like to get traded.
ICYMI.
Posts since last Sunday’s Hops:
TROT COFFEY!
The most outsized TROT COFFEY exercise I’ve ever undertaken is now complete — a four-part “Spitballing” crystal ball series predicting Rangers trades, free-agent signings, and contract extensions over the next two and a half years:
Now we move into draft season and then actual trade rumors. We will cover it all with the proper intensity right here.
Among the players who have been mocked in the last weeks to the Rangers with pick number 30 in the July 14 draft (which will be held in Fort Worth) are Tennessee third baseman Billy Amick, Cal-Berkeley catcher Caleb Lomavita, and three high schoolers: Alabama shortstop Carter Johnson, Louisiana righthander William Schmidt, and Florida SS-CF Kellon Lindsey, the last of whom I had predicted as the pick in the Spitballing series.
Reliever Bubba Hoopii-Tuionetoa hasn’t allowed a run for Double-A Birmingham since his first outing with that club following his trade to the White Sox for Robbie Grossman. Overall, in 6 ⅓ Barons innings, he’s scattered three hits and one walk while fanning nine. The opponents’ slash is right in line with his numbers in 12 ⅓ Frisco innings before the early-May trade.
The sledding has been tough for most of the players who finished 2023 with the Rangers before landing elsewhere for 2024:
Jordan Montgomery: .323 batting average, .902 OPS, 6.80 ERA in nine starts
Aroldis Chapman: 24 walks in 22 ⅓ innings, 4.43 ERA
Mitch Garver: .177/.288/.331 (.619 OPS)
Martin Perez: .300 batting average, .839 OPS, 4.71 ERA in 11 starts
Will Smith: .273 batting average, .747 OPS, 5.95 ERA in 22 relief appearances
Chris Stratton: .198 batting average, .635 OPS, 5.67 ERA in 24 relief appearances
Great stuff as always nice reminder lots of clubs are struggling. Content is always top notch you are easily in first place hopefully the Rangers can follow your lead and your positive analysis greatly appreciated.
It was a disappointing week on the field, but there’s never a disappointment in your offerings. Thanks for shepherding through the rough patches.