Sunday hops, 1-12-25.
A weekly compendium emptying the bench, with Rangers developments, rumors, and takes — and yes, a little TROT COFFEY.
It’s Roki Week.
Let’s get right to it: On to this week’s (free) Hops.
Roki.
Here we go. Almost.
Wednesday is January 15, the first day on which teams can start spending out of their 2025 international free agent bonus pools. It’s no coincidence that the Chiba Lotte Marines, though they announced their intention on November 9 to post the 23-year-old and make him available to MLB teams, didn’t post him — and open his 45-day window to negotiate and sign a minor-league contract stateside — until December 9.
That means his window is set to expire on Thursday, January 23 at 4:00 Central. While he could have signed at any time after December 9, it’s always been obvious it wouldn’t happen until January 15 at the earliest. For one, December 15 (4:00 pm Central) opened a month-long dead period through January 15 (8:00 am Central) for the signing of international amateurs — negotiations are allowed during that period and, with Sasaki, have in fact taken place — but even if he had made up his mind between December 9 and December 15, no team had its full 2024 bonus pool available, and a number of them had very little left to spend, if anything at all.
Will Sasaki sign with someone on Wednesday? He could, but his agent Joel Wolfe has suggested it could happen later in the eight-day period that follows, in part to give the team he chooses times to trade for added bonus pool money (by rule, up to an additional 60 percent of their original pool). Whether Sasaki has granted any team(s) a second meeting — perhaps involving a visit to their ballpark and facilities — is unknown, and as for first meetings, Jon Morosi (MLB Network) hears that Sasaki’s camp “has spoken with at least one team beyond the previously reported list of the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, and Rangers.”
A winter full of speculation is about to give way to some very big news.
We’ll drop TROT COFFEY’s during the week, as warranted.
The Rangers’ pitching staff.
While the CBT line shouldn’t be a major impediment as far as Sasaki is concerned (my understanding is that, under the international rules, his signing bonus will not count against the CBT), I do wonder — this is complete, unfounded speculation — if perhaps the holdup on Texas signing a closer is that, if Sasaki chooses the Rangers, it might prompt them to move Jon Gray to a team looking for one final starting pitcher, not to create payroll room so much as to trade from the added rotation depth . . . and that if Sasaki decides on a different team, Texas might be less open to moving Gray.
In a story identifying 16 of the top “trade chips” in the league, Bob Nightengale (USA Today) includes Gray among seven starting pitchers.
Adding Sasaki and moving Gray’s $13 million in 2025 ($14 million CBT hit), even if the Rangers had to eat some portion of Gray’s deal, would free up considerable extra room under the CBT line that one final free agent reliever might be holding out for — with a willingness, to a degree, to wait for the Sasaki process to play out and maximize the spending ability of those teams who were in on both but didn’t get the Japanese phenom.
As far as the bullpen as a whole goes, Texas took care of one big piece of business this week by signing set-up man Chris Martin for one year and $5.5 million, a considerable discount from the two-year, $17.5 million deal he just completed with the Red Sox. The organization suggests the 38-year-old, who has hinted that this will be his final season, could assume ninth-inning duties — and with the bullpen’s current makeup, that seems right — but it seems realistic that the Rangers, who never conduct business publicly, would remain involved in the closer market. Tanner Scott is still out there. Carlos Estevez. Kenley Jansen.
Kirby Yates.
So is David Robertson — in fact, Yates and Robertson had the two highest 2024 fWAR of any relievers still on the market (and with Jose Leclerc sixth, former Rangers make up half of the top six).
Interesting series of developments on Friday as far as that market goes:
According to Robert Murray (FanSided), righthander Jeff Hoffman had agreed to terms with the Orioles on a three-year, $40 million contract — before Baltimore backed out due to something they didn’t like in the imaging of his throwing shoulder captured during the team’s physical. Hoffman hasn’t spent time on the injured list the last two seasons.
The Blue Jays stepped in and signed Hoffman to a three-year, $33 million contract — with workload escalators that, at most (if he hits 90 innings pitched each year), would add $6 million to the deal. The guarantee pays a straight $11 million per season, though in 2025 it gets doled out as a $5 million signing bonus followed by a $6 million salary.
The Orioles pivoted to righthander Andrew Kittredge, signing him to a one-year, $10 million deal ($9 million in 2025 with a $1 million buyout attached to a $9 million club option for 2026).
The Hoffman AAV likely sets a floor for Yates, Estevez, and Jansen, while Scott is sure to eclipse it (probably in duration as well).
Before the Martin signing, Eno Sarris (The Athletic) included the Rangers’ bullpen situation as one of the “worst 15 situations among the best 15 teams,” noting that the club’s entire relief crew, even after picking up Robert Garcia and Shawn Armstrong (as well as Jacob Webb and Hoby Milner), projected to be worth a collective 2 WAR. Wrote Sarris: “[T]his Rangers bullpen is a fright. Ranked 20th by the depth charts, it could use a topper. The team’s about $12 million short of the first tax apron, though, so that might limit them from Scott. Could Carlos Estévez be the guy for them? Along with Estévez, maybe they could try fireballing prospect Emiliano Teodo in the pen. He hasn’t been able to keep his walk rates down, but the stuff is nasty. This pen needs some more work.”
Sarris’s figure is based on the FanGraphs RosterResource function, which now has the Rangers’ “Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll” at $234,921,667. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates a roughly equivalent $234,535,667. Spotrac pegs it at $228,471,666.
If the first two calculations are accurate, that would leave Texas approximately a CBT cushion of about $6 million (and must mean Sarris’s story, though published the day after the Martin signing, was filed beforehand; surely he would have named Martin in addition to Garcia and Armstrong otherwise). If the team is insistent on staying below that line, that’s not going to get Yates, or even Robertson. And that’s without considering the idea of one more right-handed-hitting outfield bat as well.
Lee Stevens remains newsworthy.
Texas reached agreements on Thursday with catcher Jonah Heim and outfielder Leody Taveras on one-year contracts for 2025. In doing so, the Rangers settled their final two pending arbitration cases, meaning the hearing they won against Lee Stevens in 2000 remains the last “file-and-trial” course the organization played out with one of its players.
The Heim deal is reported to be for $4.575 million (up from $3.05 million in 2024), Taveras’s for $4.75 million (up from $2.55 million). MLB Trade Rumors projected Heim’s eventual number to be a higher $4.8 million, while it had Taveras at $4.3 million, less than what he settled for.
The Joc Pederson deal.
A little nuance reported by the Associated Press on the Rangers’ Joc Pederson deal may not be so little.
Initial reporting on the deal described it as a two-year, $37 million contract that Pederson had the right to opt out of after the first year, plus a mutual option for 2027 — which, as most recently seen with Robertson, is almost never mutually exercised and is basically just a vehicle for a little extra base money in the form of a buyout.
All true.
But we now understand from the AP story that the Rangers have the ability to override Pederson’s opt-out by exercising that mutual option a year in advance.
Translation: if Pederson has a big enough 2025 that he opts out, preferring to reenter the market rather than play out his existing deal with a 2026 salary of $18.5 million, the Rangers can void his opt-out by exercising the mutual option for 2027 — which would essentially roll the current deal forward and make it a new two-year, $37 million deal for 2026-27.
Pederson’s contract also includes a no-trade clause, according to the AP story.
If you’ve got a direct line to Pederson, mind sharing this with him and circling No. 9? Might as well start populating the clubhouse bulletin board in Surprise.
This Week in Roster Reconstruction.
It took a while with deadlines being tolled by the holidays, but the Owen White and Sam Huff designations for assignment finally played out. The Reds were willing to send the Rangers an undisclosed amount of cash to make sure they got White without having to rely on him reaching them via waivers, while the Rangers either preferred trying to get Huff through waivers so they could outright him to Triple-A or found no offers and had no choice but to waive him. Regardless, the Giants placed the prevailing claim and Huff is now on their 40-man roster (and White is on Cincinnati’s).
Texas quickly sent Matt Festa to the Cubs for cash after dropping him from the roster to make room for Martin.
This week’s player moves — with all eyes now on the week ahead:
January 6: RHP Chris Martin signed for one year and $5.5 million
January 6: RHP Matt Festa designated for assignment
January 6: RHP Owen White traded to the Reds for cash considerations
January 6: RHP Daniel Missaki signed to a minor league contract
January 8: C Sam Huff claimed off waivers by the Giants
January 9: RHP Matt Festa traded to the Cubs for cash considerations
Note: the cash considerations acquired for White and Festa cannot be a placeholder for eventual 2025 international bonus pool space. That is, they can’t be cash considerations “to be named later,” and formalized as international money as of January 15. Not allowed.
A new annual feature.
It was one of the longer stories I’ve written in a while — and the Comments section was equally lengthy. Ranking the “top 40 players in town” was a blast.
Never too late to jump into the debate!
Farm stuff.
Baseball America’s “breakout prospects” feature spotlights RHP’s David Davalillo and Kolton Curtis from the Rangers.
Davalillo: “Nothing in Davalillo’s arsenal jumps out as a true plus pitch, but nothing in his mix is worse than fringe-average. His fastball sits around 93 mph and touches 96, and he switched its shape from four-seam to two-seam as the season wore on. Davalillo’s best offspeed is his split-changeup. The pitch garnered a 57.8% miss rate, the highest of any part of his repertoire. He throws two distinct breaking balls: a curveball in the mid 70s and a sweeper in the low 80s. Both pitches earned fringe-average grades from scouts. He pounded the zone with his entire arsenal and walked just 32 hitters in 110.1 innings. His results didn’t skip a beat after the move to High-A, a fact scouts inside and outside the organization attribute to his cerebral nature and excellent feel to pitch. After a breakout season, Davalillo will reach Double-A for the first time in 2025. If he can tame the hitter-friendly upper levels of the Rangers’ system he’ll jump up the ranks and work toward a future as a back-end starter.”
Curtis: “[T]all, projectable righthander with a four-pitch mix that should take steps forward as he adds strength to his frame. His four-seam fastball averaged 93 mph and touched 96 while showing nearly 18 inches of induced vertical break. He backs it with a slider, curveball and changeup. Some scouts see the changeup as his best pitch while others prefer the slider, which has gyro shape and solid depth. The changeup, thrown in the high 70s, shows solid sinking action. The curveball is a top-down breaker that offers a north-south contrast to the east-west pattern created by his slider and a split-changeup, though its break is inconsistent. Curtis’ command and control are below-average, and he walked 12.2% of hitters at Low-A. The Rangers have been aggressive with undrafted free agents in recent years, and Curtis looks like their latest success story. Scouts who saw him in the Carolina League reported a pitcher with the potential to fit in the back end of a rotation. To do so, he’ll have to keep adding strength to his frame and throw a few more strikes. His next stop is High-A Hickory.”
(Yes and no. The Hub City Spartanburgers are now the Rangers’ High-A affiliate. Hickory returns to Low-A.)
Jonathan Mayo (MLB Pipeline) surveyed front office executives around the league on various prospect-related topics.
In a poll asking which organizations are the best at drafting college and high school players, the Rangers finished somewhere between 12th and 16th.
SS Sebastian Walcott was an “also receiving votes” honoree in the “best defensive prospect” list.
Among those considered “best future closers,” RHP Kumar Rocker placed fourth, while RHP Alejandro Rosario also received votes.
As for whose secondary pitches ranked highest:
And yes, BA calls Rocker’s breaking ball a slider (even though he and the Rangers call it a curve).
Baseball America conducted its own poll of scouts around the league, who positioned the Rangers in a tie for eighth best at identifying talent, singling them out for their ability to evaluate high school talent:
A new subscription option.
A reminder: I’m now offering a permanent, lifetime, $1,000 subscription to the Newberg Report, which comes with all of the extras I’ll ever put together for those of you who are “162+” subscribers.
We do still have the $7/month plan, the $72/year option, and the $200/year “162+” deal, each of which you can sign up for here. If you’re interested in the lifetime arrangement — and thanks to those of you who have taken advantage of the offer! — let me know by email or in the Comments. We can arrange something via PayPal or Venmo or Zelle.
Again, I’m basing the concept on something Joe Sheehan offers his subscribers:
TROT COFFEY!
Jim Bowden (The Athletic) grades the Rangers season a B+ so far.
He writes: “The Rangers have had a strong offseason, adding significant power to their lineup with the trade for [Jake] Burger and the signing of Pederson; the duo combined for 52 home runs last season with their respective teams. I loved the signing of [Kyle] Higashioka to improve the catcher position overall. Bringing back [Nathan] Eovaldi to anchor the rotation was a must and they got it done with a market contract. The pick-up of Garcia should not be overlooked as the southpaw should really help their bullpen depth. Another under-the-radar move of note: Skip Schumaker, who was hired as a senior adviser to president of baseball operations Chris Young, gives the Rangers their long-term answer at manager whenever Bruce Bochy decides to retire.”
The biggest remaining question, Bowden suggests: “Will they be able to sign a closer like Tanner Scott, Carlos Estévez or Kirby Yates in free agency? That’s their biggest need.”
Bowden predicts that Texas will win the AL West — even before signing a closer.
In a separate piece, Bowden predicts homes for the following free agents:
Sasaki: Yankees or Padres (“I view the Rangers as a long shot, though they would be a good fit because of their strong pitching room and leadership group.”)
Yates: Diamondbacks (“The Blue Jays and Giants are also strong candidates to sign Scott as both could use an upgrade at the closer position. Other possible destinations include the Dodgers, Rangers and Diamondbacks.”)
Scott: Red Sox
Estevez: Cubs (“Teams such as the Blue Jays, Rangers, Red Sox and Giants also make sense for Estévez, who logged 26 saves between the Phillies and Angels last year.”)
Nick Deeds (MLB Trade Rumors) considers the Rangers a longshot (along with the Cubs and Orioles) to trade for Arizona LHP Jordan Montgomery. He has the A's, Braves, and White Sox as the best fits, and the Astros, Mariners, and Mets as the “next tier down.”
Montgomery in Houston would be super-weird to see.
1B Nathaniel Lowe is one of 17 arbitration-eligibles around the league who failed to reach a settlement agreement in advance of Thursday’s deadline for players and their teams to exchange salary figures. Lowe submitted a $11.1 million proposal (the second highest of the 17, next to Kyle Tucker’s $17.5 million), while the Nationals filed at $10.3 million. With that narrow a gap, surely that case will settle before an arbitration hearing. Not a great start to the relationship there otherwise.
In a story running down Boston’s bullpen options — exacerbated when Martin opted for the Rangers despite what was reportedly a more lucrative offer from the Red Sox — Chris Cotillo (MassLive) lists 14 relievers, hitting on basically every legitimate name still on the market. Among them are Yates (“[t]he competition is going to stiff for the soon-to-be 38-year-old gamer who will probably get two years”), Robertson (“a one-year deal . . . might appeal to him if he wants to pitch close to his Rhode Island residence [and his wife, Erin, is a Brookline native]”), Leclerc (“has always posted high strikeout numbers and his whiff [36%] and strikeout percentages [30.9%] were elite last year . . . seems right up Alex Cora’s alley”), and Andrew Chafin (“has pitched forever and has seemed to be linked to the Red Sox every year”).
Kevin Miller (Bleacher Report) spitballs a Rangers trade with the Cardinals that would send OF Alejandro Osuna and LHP Mitch Bratt to St. Louis for RHP Ryan Helsley. I can’t imagine that would get a Helsley trade done, even for just one year of saves before the closer hits free agency. If that deal is available, I expect the Rangers would strongly consider it.
RHP Michael Lorenzen signed a one-year, $7 million contract to stay with the Royals, with a $12 million mutual option for 2026.
The White Sox signed LHP Martín Pérez on a one-year, $5 million deal — namely, a $3.5 million salary for 2025 with a $1.5 million buyout attached to a $10 million mutual option for 2026.
LHP Brock Burke and the Angels settled his arbitration case at $1.15 million.
The A’s signed LHP CD Pelham to a minor-league deal with an invitation to major-league camp. He pitched in the Angels system as well as in Mexico in 2024.
The A’s extended DH Brent Rooker for five years and $60 million, with a sixth-year vesting option at a $22 million base. Love that the A’s are spending, but that’s a very tradeable contract and I bet he finishes it hitting in another uniform.
The Orioles claimed RHP Roansy Contreras off waivers from the Reds, who had designated him for assignment 18 days after claiming him off waivers from the Rangers (who had DFA’d him to make room for Eovaldi).
To make room for the signing of Hoffman, the Blue Jays designated RHP Brett de Geus for assignment.
Minor-league deals for onetime Rangers farmhands: RHP Nabil Crismatt (Phillies) and RHP Kevin Gowdy (Blue Jays).
In Sasaki-related news, Ben Badler (Baseball America) reports that Dominican shortstop Darell Morel had been in line to sign with the Dodgers when the international period opens up this week, but “[w]ith the uncertainty of the Dodgers’ situation given that they might land Sasaki, Morel now is set to sign with the Pirates.”
The Padres hired former Mariners manager Scott Servais to serve as a special assistant for baseball operations and player development. Servais and San Diego President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller worked together for years in player development with the Rangers.
Hat tip to former Rangers minor-league Rule 5 pick Russell Wilson, who had a bit of an unexpected (if momentary) spike at age 36 this season, one that came to an end last night, in another sport. The one he’s made more than $300 million playing.
ICYMI.
Posts since last Sunday’s Hops:
@Jamey I’m interested in the lifetime subscription option. Can you please contact me directly about it? Thank you!
I am pretty proud of the Rangers as an organization for avoiding arbitration for 25 straight years, now.
It seems like such an easy thing for a franchise to do in order to establish a good reputation among Free Agents and to keep players happy. It's always boggled my mind to see teams argue over what is effectively pennies on the dollar in the grand scheme of these contracts. I'll never forget how dejected and upset Corbin Burnes was after he went to arbitration with the Brewers.