Sunday hops, 2-2-25.

A weekly compendium emptying the bench, with Rangers developments, rumors, and takes — and yes, a little TROT COFFEY.

(Photo by Brandon Wade/Getty Images)

It’s Spring Training Month.

I kicked it off by heading out to watch a high school baseball game Saturday afternoon, in sunny, 70-degree weather.

It’s just about time.

Ten sleeps.

I’m very sports-sad about Luka Dončić — gutted, confused, angry — and plan to write something about that later today.

For now, on to this week’s Hops, where we will stay with baseball — and the team whose front office now stands as one of two in town that we can fairly invest our confidence in.

No paywall on this one.

The $13 million Kirby Yates took to join the Dodgers’ bullpen, a deal that can max out at $14 million should he pitch 55 times in 2025, would have put the Rangers over this season’s Competitive Balance Tax threshold, or it wouldn’t have, depending on the source. Regardless, we can properly view the dollars — or, more accurately, the impact of the dollars on the team’s CBT status — as likely a very big reason that Yates isn’t coming back to Texas for a second season.

Now, Yates did say at his introductory Los Angeles presser, with a big smile on his face, that both of his parents were born in Southern California and his grandfather is a diehard Dodgers fan, and that signing with the Dodgers “kinda struck home” with him.

I’m not a “behoove” guy. The closest I think I’ve come to believing a player was making a big mistake leaving was in 2012, when I thought Josh Hamilton was possibly making a lifestyle mistake when he left the Rangers to sign with the Angels, but hey, Katie was very much into the idea. I wanted Cliff Lee to stay, but for family reasons I understood his decision to return to Philadelphia. If this felt right for Yates and his family, it’s not as if, at age 38, he needs to prioritize saves to maximize the chase for a new multi-year deal. Winning a ring is also a goal I can respect, and the Dodgers, admit it or not, are a better bet than the Rangers, and just about everyone else, on that front.

The Rangers needed Yates, or someone of his stature and experience, more than the Dodgers did. But that doesn’t mean the Yates family needed Texas more than Los Angeles.

The Yates defection and the theoretical void that remains in the pen got me to thinking a bit more about this CBT issue. Whether the Rangers are $6 million under the tax line or $19 million under it or somewhere in between, owner Ray Davis reportedly confirmed at Tuesday’s Rangers Sports Network presser that “the club still intends to stay below the CBT threshold in 2025 to allow for ‘resetting’ the penalties.”

I wrote this last weekend:

And here’s the other thing that I don’t think we talk about enough. If Texas finds a way to add to the roster and butt up against the CBT line without hopping over it, it still could limit them at trade deadline time. If, as usual, the Rangers want to be aggressive in late July as long as they’re in contention, the cost in prospects skyrockets. Want Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley on July 31, three months before he’ll be a free agent? It won’t be cheap; it will cost you Prospect X. (Cole Ragans for Aroldis Chapman will be written about in two markets for a very long time.) Oh, you want us to cover most of his salary, too? Now it will cost you Prospects X, Y, and Z.

Since then, another angle on all of this crept into my head. I’ve started to work on a story on all of this, and will get back to it after sending this Hops entry out and knocking out a quick Luka piece.

For now, David Robertson and Kenley Jansen and, I suppose, Kyle Finnegan: what’s up?

A little more on the RSN announcement.

I was at the Tuesday presser and was very happily surprised to see Elvis Andrus introduced as part of the broadcast team for 2025. That development dominated my writeup. In that story, I also alluded to the addition of field reporter Laura Stickells, who comes from the Boston market, and to the increased presence of Jared Sandler.

But I didn’t run down the full broadcast roster. Here’s the entire team, as announced by the Rangers:

Several of you have asked me what I know about your own options, in terms of cable or streaming access as well as over-the-air affiliates outside the Metroplex markets (in addition to the Victory+ Season Pass option). Perhaps the below graphic will help a little; you can also go here to learn more.

According to Neil Leibman, Chairman of the newly formed Rangers Entertainment and Media Company, there should be more cable and satellite agreements to come.

The Rangers will broadcast eight of their spring training games, four on RSN and four over-the-air (KDAF CW33 in the Metroplex, and on other stations throughout the market). The eight games:

• Wednesday, March 12 vs. Cincinnati (3:05 p.m. CT, over-the-air)

• Friday, March 14 vs. Colorado (8:05 p.m. CT, RSN)

• Sunday, March 16 vs. Chicago-AL (3:05 p.m. CT, over-the-air)

• Tuesday, March 18 vs. Cleveland (8:05 p.m. CT, RSN)

• Thursday, March 20 vs. Colorado (8:05 p.m. CT, RSN)

• Saturday, March 22 vs. Kansas City (2:05 p.m. CT, over-the-air)

• Monday, March 24 vs. Kansas City (7:05 p.m. CT, RSN)

• Tuesday, March 25 vs. Kansas City (1:35 p.m. CT, over-the-air)

Thirty of the Rangers’ 33 spring games will be broadcast on television, on the radio, or via audio webcast.

This Week in Roster Reconstruction.

A little more activity this week, if not of the roster-altering type.

• January 21: RHP Peyton Gray signed to a minor league contract

• January 21: C Chad Wallach signed to minor league contract with invite to major-league spring training

• January 21: OF Cody Thomas signed to minor league contract with invite to major-league spring training

• January 25: IF Alex De Goti re-signed to a minor league contract

• January 26: C-OF Brandon Martorano signed to a minor league contract

• January 27: RHP Jesse Chavez signed to minor league contract with invite to major-league spring training

• January 27: Non-roster invites to major-league spring training extended to:

  • Pitchers Dane Acker, Robby Ahlstrom, Kohl Drake, Skylar Hales

  • Catchers Malcolm Moore

  • Infielders Blaine Crim, Cody Freeman, Abimelec Ortiz, Sebastian Walcott

  • Outfielders Trevor Hauver, Alejandro Osuna

The absence of LHP Bryan Magdaleno and RHP Josh Stephan on the NRI list was a little surprising to me, Magdaleno in particular since I think there’s a scenario under which he helps in Arlington this year. Stephan, on the other hand, needs a full, healthy season on the farm. I would expect both to get some JIC assignments in camp.

This will be Chavez’s fourth stint in the organization, as he seeks to add an 18th season to his big-league stat sheet. The 41-year-old originally signed with the Rangers as their Round 42 pick in 2002 out of Riverside City College. By 2012, that round no longer existed.

Gray is interesting. The 29-year-old bounced around in the Rockies and Royals organizations from 2018 through 2021, topping out at the Double-A level in mostly middle relief roles. He spent 2022 and 2023 in the independent American Association and didn’t pitch in organized ball in 2024 (he joined the Reds in February but spent the whole year on the injured list), but for the second straight winter he’s been with the Guasave Algodoneros in the Mexican Pacific Winter League. In those two seasons, he’s scattered 26 hits and 14 unintentional walks — and zero home runs — over 48 innings, striking out 71. He’s saved 24 games and pitched to an ERA of 0.75.

PPI-eligibles: Texas (realistically) has one.

Baseball America reports that 90 players are, for the moment, eligible to earn their clubs a bonus draft pick after Round One in 2026 under MLB’s Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) rules. They are the 90 players who appeared on at least two of the three Top 100 Prospects rankings published by Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB.com.

To remain PPI-eligible, the next hurdle is that the player must accrue at least 172 days of MLB service in 2025, functionally meaning he must make the Opening Day roster (and stay) or be called up within the first two weeks of the season (and then stay).

At that point, if the player wins Rookie of the Year in 2025, his team will get the bonus draft pick.

Eight of the 90 have already made their big-league debuts, including Rangers RHP Kumar Rocker. He’s the best bet for Texas, though I would suggest not a great candidate, as he’ll probably have workload guardrails set up by the team that would make winning Rookie of the Year pretty challenging.

The other two Rangers of the 90 who qualify are SS Sebastian Walcott and RHP Alejandro Rosario, each expected to start the season with Double-A Frisco.

My understanding of the PPI rules is that a team, aside from earning a compensatory pick if an eligible player wins Rookie of the Year, can also net a PPI pick if the player finishes in the top three for either MVP or Cy Young — at any time before he qualifies for arbitration. If that remains true, if Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, or Evan Carter were to finish third or better in the AL MVP vote this year, Texas would get one of those supplemental firsts in 2026.

Farm stuff.

• While Walcott may not realistically figure into the PPI mix in 2025, at least one national writer is expecting huge things from the shortstop this year. After earning rankings as the No. 17 prospect in baseball (MLB.com) and No. 21 (Baseball America) last week, this week Keith Law (The Athletic) has him at No. 2 in the game, behind only Red Sox OF Roman Anthony. Among Law’s notes:

  • Walcott, who started the 2024 season at High-A Hickory at age 18, was one of two players that young (along with Padres C prospect Ethan Salas) to start the season above Low-A.

  • Though he was the South Atlantic League’s youngest regular (and despite a slow first two months), Walcott finished his Hickory season with an OBP 17 points and a slugging percentage 78 points above league average.

  • Law goes on to describe Walcott as “an excellent athlete with above-average speed [who] gets very high marks for his feel for the game, including his ability to make in-game and in-season adjustments,” and suggests that, because he has “tremendous bat speed and already produces hard contact at a very high rate, . . . there’s every reason to hope he can be a 30-homer guy with a high average even if his strikeout rate remains in the 24-25 percent range.”

  • Law believes “he’s extremely likely to outgrow [shortstop] — he’s going to be larger than Carlos Correa or Corey Seager, two bigger guys who defied expectations to remain at short. At worst, you’ve got a right fielder who hits for average and power.”

  • Finally, from Law: “I think he’s underrated already, and he’s my pick to be the No. 1 prospect a year from now.”

• Law has Rocker at No. 51:

  • “The slider is easily plus and might be a 70 once again, and keeps him on top of his 94-97 mph four-seamer.”

  • “[I]n the big leagues he’s going to have to show better command to get ahead of hitters and to avoid a lot of four-inning, 85-pitch starts.”

  • Law “bet[s] that he’ll make those adjustments and end up at least a mid-rotation starter, perhaps someone who pitches at a higher level than that but needs to skip some starts here and there to keep him healthy.”

• Law has Rosario at No. 64:

  • At the University of Miami, Law notes, Rosario struggled despite a “good arm and a potential out pitch in his splitter that he barely used, as Miami had him working more sinker/changeup.”

  • The Rangers, after signing him out of the fifth round, had him “throw the splitter and go with a four-seamer up, and voila!, instant prospect!”

  • Law believes that, “sitting 92-95 with the plus splitter and a maybe-average slider, [Rosario] should be a mid-rotation starter and get to the majors this year.”

• In a separate story, Law ranks the 30 farm systems.

  • He has the Rangers at No. 13: “The Rangers won the World Series in 2023 and almost everything went wrong in 2024, except on the farm, where Sebastian Walcott blew up [after a slow start] to reach Double A as an 18-year-old, Kumar Rocker got healthy and reached the majors, Alejandro Rosario turned into a completely new pitcher, they had a very solid draft class despite picking last in each round . . . and [Malcolm] more. They also have a big collection of probably reliever types who could help them build a cheap and effective bullpen in a year or two — more likely two.”

  • The Mariners are Law’s No. 1 system.

  • Entertainingly, the other three AL West teams finished in the bottom four: the A’s at No. 27, Astros at No. 29, and Angels at No. 30. Of the Angels, Law writes: “It’s not personal that I keep ranking the Angels low, but they are simply not trying to build a farm system.”

• Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) dropped his own Top 100, plugging Walcott in at No. 19, Rocker at No. 35, and Rosario at No. 56. Regarding Walcott, McDaniel recognizes “some Fernando Tatis Jr. as a prospect vibes, but . . . wouldn’t expect that outcome.” He expects Walcott to end up at third base as a .240 hitter with average walk rates and 30 home runs a year (with 40-homer upside).

• McDaniel lists his next 100 prospects as well, including RHP Winston Santos at No. 150 and RHP Jack Leiter at No. 168.

• McDaniel has Texas at No. 16 (and the Astros No. 30) in his own farm system rankings.

• R.J. Anderson (CBS Sports) has Walcott at No. 20.

• Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com) pegs Leiter as the Rangers’ best “non-Top 100” prospect.

• In a “best tools” piece, Sam Dykstra (MLB.com) identifies Rocker’s “slider” (sigh) as the best among Top-100 prospects, putting a 70 grade on it. Dykstra gives Walcott’s arm strength a 70 as well.

• Zach Crizer (D Magazine) wrote a fantastic deep-dive analysis of Walcott’s game and upside.

• Baseball America’s latest top-30 ranking for the Rangers includes OF Elorky Rodriguez at No. 20. Rodriguez headed up the Rangers’ international class two weeks ago.

• BA’s Josh Norris calls RHP David Davalillo (No. 16) the system’s “sleeper,” noting: “It’s not often the minor league ERA leader qualifies as a sleeper, but Davalillo’s reign in that category certainly qualifies. . . . Davalillo’s money pitch is his split-changeup, which garnered whiffs at a clip of nearly 58 percent. Nothing in his arsenal is plus, but he pitches with the guile and gumption of a seasoned vet, a trait attributable to his father, a former professional and a longtime minor league coach, as well.”

A new subscription option.

A reminder: I’m now offering a permanent, lifetime, $1,000 subscription to the Newberg Report, which comes with all of the extras I’ll ever put together for those of you who are “162+” subscribers. Thanks to those of you who have already signed on for it!

We do still have the $7/month plan, the $72/year option, and the $200/year “162+” deal, each of which you can sign up for here. If you’re interested in the lifetime arrangement, let me know by email or in the Comments. We can arrange something via PayPal or Venmo or Zelle.

Again, I’m basing the concept on something Joe Sheehan offers his subscribers:

TROT COFFEY!

• Evan Grant (Dallas Morning News) dutifully kicks off his roster projection series with a pre-camp prediction of the Opening Day 26, and given where we are on the calendar, there’s not really a lot of intrigue. He does suggest the rotation could open with Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Rocker, with Tyler Mahle a possible trade candidate given not only his $11 million CBT hit but also the possibility that workload incentives could push that number to $16 million.

• I’ll probably offer my own projections as camp unfolds. Just too soon to have any meaning, I think. Health permitted, the group looks pretty well set.

• Unless they add a closer.

• It won’t be RHP Carlos Estevez, who signed with the Royals for two years and $22.2 million.

• Ken Rosenthal (The Athletic) suggests RHP Lance Lynn could be of interest to some teams as a starter-turned-closer candidate. He adds that Lynn “could make sense for . . . the Rangers in a sixth-starter, long-relief role.”

• Rosenthal and Will Sammon (The Athletic) report that the Mets checked in on Jansen, but the veteran closer’s “goal of 500 saves plus his likely price tag muddied the match.” Jansen (whom Rosenthal and Sammon suggest could end commanding approximately $9 million a year) is 53 saves short of that mark. I know of a team expecting to contend that has no Edwin Diaz in the way.

• In a subscriber-only email, Anthony Franco (MLB Trade Rumors) suggests the Guardians could use an upgrade in center field, and to get something done would “need to a find a team that feels it has a center field surplus” — and he speculates that “[t]he Rangers seem like the best fit.”

  • Franco thinks the teams could line up on a Leody Taveras deal, perhaps for “a pre-arbitration reliever like Erik Sabrowski or Andrew Walters.”

  • Of the two, Walters would intrigue me most. Cleveland’s Supplemental Round Two pick in 2023 out of Miami — where he was teammates with Rosario all three of their years there — Walters made his pro debut last April in Double-A, was in Triple-A in May, and finished the year in Cleveland, where in 13 appearances he was tremendous, facing 32 batters and allowing a single base hit (a Jason Heyward double in his final inning of work). In his 8 ⅔ regular-season innings for the Guardians, Walters struck out six and walked five (after a 79-to-25 ratio in 50 ⅓ innings on the farm). He made Cleveland’s ALDS and ALCS rosters, appearing twice in each series and giving up a total of one run on one hit and two walks in three innings, fanning four. A burly righthander, Walters is a fastball-slider guy who works in the upper 90s and touches 100.

  • I might ask the Guardians to add OF-IF Tyler Freeman to the deal. Cody’s big brother, who is still short of arbitration eligibility, doesn’t hit a lot but is a plus defender in center field and can spot up at every position on the infield as well. I imagine Texas would have to add to Taveras to get Walters and Freeman, but I’d be interested to see what that might look like.

• Jim Bowden (The Athletic) identifies Langford (a “superstar in the making on both sides of the ball”) as one of a dozen breakout candidates in the league.

• In his own piece spotlighting 10 potential breakouts whom he’s got his eyes on “to see if they can turn their brief flashes of brilliance into sustained success,” Thomas Harrigan (MLB.com) includes Bradford.

• Joel Reuter (Bleacher Report) spitballs a deal between the Rangers and Yankees that would send IF-OF Josh Smith back to his original organization for RHP Marcus Stroman, 24-year-old Double-A C-1B Rafael Flores, and “a significant chunk of cash“ to help cover Stroman’s $18.5 million contract in 2025. Not seeing why Texas would do that from a roster standpoint, let alone payroll-wise. If Stroman pitches 140 innings this year, he has an $18 million option for 2026 that would vest.

• Eric Nadel said this morning on The Ticket that there were a number of teams aside from the Nationals interested in trading for 1B Nathaniel Lowe, but LHP Robert Garcia was someone Texas was targeting all along to add to the bullpen.

• The Alex Bregman saga drags on. Multiple reports indicate the Astros haven’t budged from the six-year, $156 million deal they reportedly offered months ago. Jon Heyman (New York Post) suggests “one reason [Bregman] declined that earlier is it’s a cut from [his] $28.5 million salary” in 2024. According to Heyman, the Cubs, Red Sox, and Tigers remain in the hunt, and one of them (or possibly another team) is apparently offering six years as well, though allowing Bregman an opt-out after one season.

• The Blue Jays signed RHP Max Scherzer for one year and $15.5 million — $500,000 more than RHP Justin Verlander got from the Giants.

• The Rays signed RHP Jonathan Hernández to a minor-league deal with an invite to big-league camp.

• The Mariners gave a similar deal to RHP Neftalí Feliz, who hasn’t pitched stateside since major-league and Triple-A runs with both the Phillies and Dodgers in 2021. He’s pitched in Mexico (and the Dominican Winter League) since.

• In two unrelated moves, the Reds signed OF Austin Hays — a player I was hoping earlier this winter that Texas might bring aboard — for one year and $5 million ($4 million in 2025, plus a $1 million buyout of a $12 million mutual option for 2026), a day before which they designated RHP Owen White for assignment. Cincinnati had sent cash to Texas on January 6 for White, after the Rangers had DFA’d to make room for LHP Hoby Milner.

OK. Time to write about Luka, then get back to my take on the Rangers’ handling of the CBT issue.