We recorded a rocking episode of Rangers Podcast in Arlington in front of an audience of some of you at Sherlock's until about 9:30 last night (wait until you hear the unnerving tension between host Ted Price and featured guest Mike Rhyner) and then I rushed home to do a 45-minute podcast at 10 p.m. with the Phil Naessens Show out of Corfu, Greece. After that I was flipping through the day's email messages, with an eye on the tremendous Seattle 5, Los Angeles 3 finish (daps, Blake Beavan), when it hit me that my baseball night wasn't done. I was going to wait another day to write about Lance Berkman, but realized I probably shouldn't. If Texas is going to trade for Berkman – which is a considerable longshot – it will happen today or tomorrow. Before getting into why a deal is probably unlikely, let's start with the procedurals: 1. St. Louis, somewhat surprisingly, was able to get Berkman through revocable trade waivers this month. His one-year, $8 million contract does not contain a no-trade clause. By virtue of those two facts, he can therefore be traded to any team. 2. If he is traded by tomorrow's 11 p.m. deadline, he's eligible to play in the post-season. If he's traded in September, he can't appear on a playoff roster. 3. Berkman is reportedly teetering between Type A and Type B free agent status (though Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com suggests, based on Eddie Hajek's reverse-engineering efforts, that Berkman's Type A status would actually gain footing if he were traded to the American League). If he's a Type A, the team he finishes the season would get two premium draft picks if they were to offer him arbitration this winter and he declined it to sign elsewhere. If he's a Type B, the compensation would be one supplemental first-round pick. 4. Any member of a 40-man roster that a team wished to offer St. Louis in a deal for Berkman would need to get to the Cardinals on waivers. If Texas were the interested team, any such players would have to get by all 13 other American League teams and the 10 National League teams (possibly 11, depending on Tuesday's results) with worse records than the Cardinals. 5. A player not on the 40-man roster can be traded without waivers. So Neil Ramirez or Robbie Ross or Leury Garcia: tradeable. 6. A player to be named later cannot be on an active big league roster between the time of the trade and its ultimate culmination. a. So the only way that someone like Mitch Moreland, for instance, could be part of a Berkman deal would be (1) if Texas got him through waivers until St. Louis claimed him (or got him through waivers altogether earlier this month, as St. Louis managed to do with Berkman) or (2) if the Rangers optioned Moreland first – and left him on the farm throughout September and October if he didn't get to St. Louis on waivers. (Interestingly, Texas would have already had to run any such roster member who might be in play with St. Louis out on waivers, since there's a 48-hour claim period that would need to expire before tomorrow's deadline to make a trade for a playoff-eligible player.) b. Roster members Michael Kirkman or Pedro Strop or Engel Beltre, on the other hand, could be players to be named later, as long as they didn't come up to Arlington in the meantime. OK, enough facts. Let's talk about likelihood. Assuming he's a Type A, if the Cardinals believe Berkman wants to play with them in 2012, trading him now would mean they'd have to surrender their 2012 first-round pick to the team he finishes 2011 with – and right now that pick stands to be 19th overall. It's not as if it will be at the end of the round. If the Cardinals believe a Type A Berkman wants to play somewhere else in 2012, they'd basically be forfeiting the first-round pick and supplemental first-rounder that they'd get as compensation if he stayed until the season ended. (I don't even leave room for the slim possibility that the first could be a second, because Berkman has said that if he plays in 2012, it will be for a contender – in fact, he told Joe Strauss of the
Trading for Lance Berkman: A longshot.
Trading for Lance Berkman: A longshot.
Trading for Lance Berkman: A longshot.
We recorded a rocking episode of Rangers Podcast in Arlington in front of an audience of some of you at Sherlock's until about 9:30 last night (wait until you hear the unnerving tension between host Ted Price and featured guest Mike Rhyner) and then I rushed home to do a 45-minute podcast at 10 p.m. with the Phil Naessens Show out of Corfu, Greece. After that I was flipping through the day's email messages, with an eye on the tremendous Seattle 5, Los Angeles 3 finish (daps, Blake Beavan), when it hit me that my baseball night wasn't done. I was going to wait another day to write about Lance Berkman, but realized I probably shouldn't. If Texas is going to trade for Berkman – which is a considerable longshot – it will happen today or tomorrow. Before getting into why a deal is probably unlikely, let's start with the procedurals: 1. St. Louis, somewhat surprisingly, was able to get Berkman through revocable trade waivers this month. His one-year, $8 million contract does not contain a no-trade clause. By virtue of those two facts, he can therefore be traded to any team. 2. If he is traded by tomorrow's 11 p.m. deadline, he's eligible to play in the post-season. If he's traded in September, he can't appear on a playoff roster. 3. Berkman is reportedly teetering between Type A and Type B free agent status (though Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com suggests, based on Eddie Hajek's reverse-engineering efforts, that Berkman's Type A status would actually gain footing if he were traded to the American League). If he's a Type A, the team he finishes the season would get two premium draft picks if they were to offer him arbitration this winter and he declined it to sign elsewhere. If he's a Type B, the compensation would be one supplemental first-round pick. 4. Any member of a 40-man roster that a team wished to offer St. Louis in a deal for Berkman would need to get to the Cardinals on waivers. If Texas were the interested team, any such players would have to get by all 13 other American League teams and the 10 National League teams (possibly 11, depending on Tuesday's results) with worse records than the Cardinals. 5. A player not on the 40-man roster can be traded without waivers. So Neil Ramirez or Robbie Ross or Leury Garcia: tradeable. 6. A player to be named later cannot be on an active big league roster between the time of the trade and its ultimate culmination. a. So the only way that someone like Mitch Moreland, for instance, could be part of a Berkman deal would be (1) if Texas got him through waivers until St. Louis claimed him (or got him through waivers altogether earlier this month, as St. Louis managed to do with Berkman) or (2) if the Rangers optioned Moreland first – and left him on the farm throughout September and October if he didn't get to St. Louis on waivers. (Interestingly, Texas would have already had to run any such roster member who might be in play with St. Louis out on waivers, since there's a 48-hour claim period that would need to expire before tomorrow's deadline to make a trade for a playoff-eligible player.) b. Roster members Michael Kirkman or Pedro Strop or Engel Beltre, on the other hand, could be players to be named later, as long as they didn't come up to Arlington in the meantime. OK, enough facts. Let's talk about likelihood. Assuming he's a Type A, if the Cardinals believe Berkman wants to play with them in 2012, trading him now would mean they'd have to surrender their 2012 first-round pick to the team he finishes 2011 with – and right now that pick stands to be 19th overall. It's not as if it will be at the end of the round. If the Cardinals believe a Type A Berkman wants to play somewhere else in 2012, they'd basically be forfeiting the first-round pick and supplemental first-rounder that they'd get as compensation if he stayed until the season ended. (I don't even leave room for the slim possibility that the first could be a second, because Berkman has said that if he plays in 2012, it will be for a contender – in fact, he told Joe Strauss of the